Global fossil gas demand is expected to decline by 0.5% in 2026, mainly due to lower consumption in the energy and industrial sectors. It will be the third time in seven years that demand for fossil fuel has fallen.
Demand for fossil gas is expected to fall for the third time in seven years, IEA projects
Global fossil gas demand is expected to decline by 0.5% in 2026, mainly due to lower consumption in the energy and industrial sectors. It will be the third time in seven years that demand for fossil fuel has fallen. The...
The projections are from the Gas market report, from the International Energy Agency (IEA), for the 3rd quarter. The document was published on Tuesday (7/7), one day before tensions increased between the United States and Iran amid fragile negotiations to end the conflict in the Middle East, which raised oil and gas prices again (read here).
According to the IEA, global gas demand is expected to fall by around 20 billion cubic meters in 2026, Investing.com reports. Fossil gas consumption also fell in 2020, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and 2022, with Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
The impact of the war in Iran varies between regions. In the Middle East, where local gas production and processing facilities have been damaged and production in gas-intensive industries such as fertilizers has declined, demand is expected to contract by around 4% this year. It will be the first annual decline in gas consumption in the region since 1993, highlights the agency.
In Asia, the IEA saw a drop in demand of 0.5%, as higher prices for liquefied gas (LNG) encourage the substitution of gas for coal in electrical generation and are reducing the operation of fuel-intensive industries. In Europe, the combination of strong growth in electricity production based on renewable sources and higher gas prices will reduce demand for the fuel by more than 2%.
In regions with little or no dependence on LNG imports, the impact of the war will be limited. In Africa, gas demand is expected to remain stable, while in Central and South America it is expected to rise 3%, with greater electrical generation from fuel compensating for the drop in hydroelectric production in the region predicted due to El Niño.
In North America, the IEA predicts a slight drop, after the relatively mild weather in the first quarter reduced gas consumption in buildings. On the other hand, demand in Eurasia is expected to grow by almost 3% in the year, due to the lowest temperatures recorded in the same period.
Source: ClimaInfo
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