Imea study points to increase in rural debt and warns of financial challenges in agriculture in Mato Grosso

The survey compares the periods from 2017 to 2021, marked by a favorable cycle for the sector, and with the years from 2022 to 2026, when the economic scenario began to put pressure on the profitability of rural producers throughout Brazil.

According to Imea, the new data show that Mato Grosso had an increase in the expansion of rural credit. The volume of resources used by producers jumped from R$15.58 billion in the 2016/17 harvest to R$47.43 billion in 2023/24. The cost of soybean and corn crops alone, for example, increased from R$5.65 billion to R$15 billion in the same period.

At the same time, the cost of this financing increased gradually, and credit programs saw an increase in interest rates. Meanwhile, the Selic rate reached 14.25% per year, which increased the financial cost of operations and reduced producers' investment capacity.

According to Imea superintendent, Cleiton Gauer, the study shows that production is not the biggest challenge for properties. "The producer continues to produce well, but this effort has no longer translated into financial results. In addition to productivity, he needs to manage high production costs, lower prices than those recorded post-pandemic and, now, a greater volume of accumulated debts. Making the operation increasingly efficient has become essential to get through this moment", he states.

The institute's survey shows that, until April this year, the so-called problematic credit (which includes defaulted, renegotiated and extended operations) reached R$21.79 billion in Mato Grosso. The amount represents 18.22% of the state's entire rural credit portfolio, that is, the highest percentage in the historical series. For comparison purposes, Imea points out that in 2022 this rate was just 2.08%.

Study shows that problem credit rate reaches 18.22% in MT. According to Cleiton, more than half of this volume corresponds to renegotiated operations, indicating that several producers are seeking to reorganize their finances to maintain activity.

"When we add defaults, renegotiated and extended operations, almost 20% of Mato Grosso's rural credit presents some type of challenge. A large part of these debts will extend into the next harvests, requiring financial planning so that the producer can honor their commitments", he suggests.

The research also points out that defaults exceeding 90 days reached 4.98% of the state portfolio, totaling R$5.25 billion in delayed operations.

As highlighted by Imea, based on data from Serasa Experian, the number of Judicial Recoveries (RJ) in agribusiness is also another factor that needs attention. Since 2023, Mato Grosso has led the national ranking and, in 2025 alone, registered 332 requests, surpassing states such as Goiás (296) and Paraná (248).

For the Imea superintendent, this scenario shows that the main risk for the sector is currently financial. "There is no immediate concern of widespread insolvency, but the indicators grew very quickly. In a few years we went from a scenario in which approximately 2% of the portfolio had problems to more than 18%. This is the great challenge that the producer will have to manage in the next harvests."

Cleiton also assesses that this increase in debt is a consequence of a combination of three factors: a drop in soybean and corn prices after the cycle of high post-pandemic prices, the maintenance of still high production costs, influenced by the consequences of the war between Russia and Ukraine, and the increase in interest rates.

The research developed used data from Imea, Central Bank (BC), Ministry of Agriculture, Mato Grosso National Rural Learning Service (Senar MT) and Serasa Experian to evaluate indicators of credit, rural insurance and financial risk.

State has R$21.7 billion in Problematic Credit