Copom reduces the Selic rate to 14% per year

In relation to the domestic scenario, the set of indicators released since the last meeting suggests a gradual moderation in economic activity, although still at a resilient level, with mixed signals between sectors, and a heated job market. In the most recent releases, headline inflation slowed down, but still above the upper limit of the target, while underlying measures slowed to a level slightly below the upper limit of the target.

Inflation expectations for 2026 and 2027 calculated by the Focus survey remain above the target, standing at 5.0% and 4.2%, respectively. The Copom's inflation projection for the first quarter of 2028, the current relevant monetary policy horizon, stands at 3.2% in the reference scenario.

The Committee highlighted that it continues to monitor how developments in domestic fiscal policy impact monetary policy and financial assets, reinforcing the cautious stance in a scenario of greater uncertainty. Current activity indicators remain consistent with a deceleration trajectory in 2026. Due to the dynamics of risks associated with price developments, the Committee reaffirms that the total magnitude of the calibration cycle will be established in light of new information aiming to ensure the convergence of inflation to the target.

The following members of the Committee voted for this decision: Gabriel Muricca Galípolo (president), Ailton de Aquino Santos, Gilneu Francisco Astolfi Vivan, Izabela Moreira Correa, Nilton José Schneider David, Paulo Picchetti, and Rodrigo Alves Teixeira.

With information from the Central Bank