Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro are technically tied in the 2nd round, points out RealTime/Big Data

RealTime Big Data research released this Tuesday (21) shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) with 45% of voting intentions, against 42% for Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), in a second round simulation. The two are technically tied, considering the margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points.

In the first round simulation, Lula appears in the lead, outside the margin of error, with 40%, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro, with 33%; Renan Santos (Mission), with 9%; Ronaldo Caiado (PSD), with 7%; and Romeu Zema (Novo), with 2%. Augusto Cury (Avante) and Joaquim Barbosa (DC) recorded 1% each.

In a possible second round between Lula and Ronaldo Caiado, the PT member appears numerically behind, with 43%, against 44% for the former governor of Goiás. The two, however, are technically tied due to the margin of error.

Against Romeu Zema, Lula leads with 44%, while the Novo candidate registers 38%. In a dispute with Renan Santos, the president also appears ahead, with 44%, against 35%.

In terms of rejection, Flávio Bolsonaro appears numerically ahead of Lula, but the two are tied within the margin of error. The PL senator is rejected by 50% of those interviewed, while Lula registers 48%. Caiado appears with 39%, Zema with 37% and Renan with 33%.

The survey interviewed 2,000 voters across the country between the 18th and 20th of July. The survey has a margin of error of two percentage points, a confidence level of 95% and is registered under protocol BR-05864/2026.

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