Pexels Industry Brazilian industry is more pessimistic about the direction of the economy, pressured by increasing doubts and insecurities about the global economy. This is what the Industrial Business Confidence Index (ICEI) shows, which fell 2.3 points in July, reaching 44.4 points. Currently, the indicator is 8.9 points below its historical average, which is 53.3 points. ? ICEI works as a thermometer to measure the mood of those who run the country's factories. When the index falls, it can mean that the entrepreneur is putting on the brakes, which usually stops new investments and hiring. Released by the National Confederation of Industry (CNI), this is the lowest level of confidence in the sector since June 2020, when the indicator had plummeted to 41.2 points due to the initial impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic. industry confidence index (CNI)/ July 2026 CNI The final number of the index is made up of two assessments: Current moment: measures how businesspeople assess the situation of the Brazilian economy and the company itself in relation to the last six months. Expectations: measures what businesspeople expect for the economy and the company in the next six months. The answers are transformed into a score ranging from 0 to 100: Above 50 points: confidence. Below 50 points: lack of confidence. The assessment of the company itself has greater weight than that of the economy in each component and expectations have greater weight than the assessment of the current moment. What's behind the industry's pessimism? In the CNI's assessment, the worsening in confidence was driven by the more negative perception of the Brazilian economy, the increase in uncertainty in the international scenario and the weakening of expectations for the companies themselves. "The scenario is possibly due to the increase in uncertainty in the external scenario, both the intensification of the war in the Middle East and also the eventual resumption of American tariffs on Brazilian products", explains Marcelo Azevedo, Economic Analysis manager at CNI. In July 2026, the Current Conditions Index fell to 41.6 points, 0.7 points lower than the previous month. The result was mainly driven by the worsening perception of the Brazilian economy, whose indicator fell from 36 to 34.7 points. The index that measures the evaluation of the companies themselves fell from 45.4 to 45.1 points. industry confidence index (CNI)/ July 2026 CNI Concern about the future The CNI survey shows a sharp drop in industry optimism regarding the next six months. The indicator that measures expectations for the future fell 3.1 points and closed at 45.8 points, registering the biggest drop for a single month since November 2022. The result was mainly driven by the worsening expectations for the Brazilian economy, whose indicator fell from 41 to 37.2 points. The expectations index for the companies themselves fell from 52.8 to 50.1 points, practically eliminating the optimism registered in previous months and leaving the indicator at the limit of neutrality. industry confidence index (CNI)/ July 2026 CNI