US tariff: Brazil considers adopting reciprocity and protecting affected sectors The new tariff imposed by the United States on Brazilian products could lead companies to seek new markets to reduce dependence on the American consumer. In this scenario, China, the main destination for Brazil's exports, appears as an alternative. Experts, however, estimate that the Asian country should only absorb a portion of sales that may be affected by American tariffs. The difference between the profile of Brazilian exports to the two countries and China's own industrial capacity limits rapid market substitution. ??Do you have any reporting suggestions? Send to g1 Last year, Brazil exported US$99.94 billion (around R$512 billion) to China, according to data from the Ministry of Development, Industry, Commerce and Services (MDIC). The value is well more than double sales to the USA, which totaled US$37.7 billion (around R$192.7 billion). In the first half of 2026, Brazilian exports to the Chinese market reached a record US$58.32 billion (around R$299 billion), an increase of 21.9% compared to the same period of the previous year. Still, China is not an immediate solution for most of the affected products. "When there is a production surplus, companies look for new markets. China is a big market, but I don't believe that tariffs alone will cause any change in this", says Rodrigo Giraldelli, specialist in China-Brazil trade and CEO of China Gate. "What goes into this tariff are, basically, manufactured products, machines, equipment and this type of thing. And, in this case, China produces a lot and exports precisely this type of product", he says. Main destinations for Brazilian exports in 2026 Art/g1 Export profile limits substitution While Americans import from Brazil mainly aircraft, machinery, equipment, processed steel products and other industrialized goods, Chinese purchases are concentrated in commodities. ? Currently, soybeans, crude oil, iron ore and meat represent almost 90% of Brazilian exports to China. This concentration reduces the ability of companies that sell industrial products to the US to migrate to the Chinese market. "A Brazilian manufacturer that loses market share in the USA is not always able to redirect its production to China. This only occurs partially and varies depending on the sector", explains Wagner Pagliato, coordinator of the Administration and Accounting Sciences courses at Unicid. According to Vera Kanas, an expert in international trade, China tends to offer more opportunities for agricultural and mineral products than for industrialized goods. "Brazil's export basket to China is restricted to a few commodities, such as iron ore and soybeans. Furthermore, many of the commodities that Brazil exports to China were not affected by the recently imposed tariffs." The 20 most exported products to China in the 1st half of 2026 Art/g1 The experience of Trump's first tariff shows that some companies were able to seek other markets, but without a complete replacement. According to the Central Bank's Regional Bulletin published in December 2025, Brazilian sales to the USA fell 6.7%, from US$40.4 billion to US$ 37.7 billion in 2025. In the same period, exports to other countries grew from US$ 296.7 billion to US$ 310.6 billion. In the most intense period of tariffs, between August and November 2025, products such as oil, aircraft, iron and steel semi-finished products, coffee, beef, fruit juices and cellulose saw a drop in sales to the USA, but an increase in exports to other destinations, indicating a partial redirection of trade flows. difference in the purchasing profile, the Chinese market has its own restrictions, including tariff quotas for some agricultural products, sanitary requirements and rules for exporter qualifications. Since January 2026, China has started to apply import quotas and surcharges on Brazilian beef. The measure establishes an initial annual quota of 1.1 million tons for Brazil. trade, Brazilian products continue to be subject to import tariffs applied by the Chinese market, in addition to regulatory requirements and specific barriers for certain sectors. ? China does not apply a single tariff on Brazilian products. Rates vary depending on the product and tariff classification. 0%. Industrialized products tend to face higher rates. Chinese economy grows less A woman and two children shop in front of a refrigerated cheese shelf in a supermarket in Beijing, China, on July 10, 2026. Reuters Another factor limiting further expansion of Brazilian exports is the moment experienced by the Chinese economy In the second quarter of 2026, China's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 4.3%, below what was recorded at the beginning of the year and below the target. established by the government. At the same time, the country faces a prolonged crisis in the real estate sector, weakened domestic consumption and excess industrial capacity "The Chinese economy continues to grow, but at a slower pace than in the past. Recent data show growth sustained mainly by exports and industry, while domestic consumption remains weak and the real estate sector continues to face difficulties", says Pagliato. For him, these factors make it risky to excessively increase Brazilian dependence