With war, Brazil imports less fertilizer and pays more. High fertilizer prices and transport difficulties could lead farmers to reduce fertilization this harvest, affecting the production of important foods for the Brazilian consumer basket, such as rice, oranges, coffee and wheat, point out experts interviewed by g1. The Middle East is Brazil's fourth largest supplier, after Europe, Asia and Africa. The region plays a central role in the fertilizer market because of the Strait of Hormuz, which has had an unstable transport flow since the start of the war between the United States and Iran. In addition to being a fundamental route for the oil market, this is the route through which around a third of maritime fertilizer trade passes, according to data from Consultoria Agro do Itaú BBA. It accounts for more than 40% of global urea exports, in addition to a relevant portion of ammonia, around half of sulfur. ?? Do you have any reporting suggestions? Send to g1 As a result of the periods in which the route was closed during the war, prices soared and access for producers became more difficult. The difficulty in accessing oil has also generated a shortage of sulfur in the world. The input is used in the production of phosphate fertilizers, of which Brazil imports 80% of what it consumes. The result is that, between January and May, the country imported around 45% less of the product than in the same period last year. Given this scenario, fertilizer industries in Brazil have reduced production, such as Mosaic, one of the largest global companies in the sector. ? But why is having less fertilizer bad? Crops that do not receive adequate fertilization may experience a drop in productivity, affecting the quantity available on the market, the quality of products and, consequently, prices, explains Felippe Serigati, researcher at FGV Agro. The lack of fertilizer alone may not cause such a big impact, but it is another problem that adds to the scenario in the field and becomes worrying, points out the researcher. In addition to fertilization, agribusiness is expected to face a strong El Niño this year. ? The phenomenon is marked by the warming of the waters of the Pacific Ocean, which changes climate patterns around the world. In producing regions, it can cause droughts and untimely rains, damaging the plantation. "It is difficult to know what the contribution of each of these shocks will be to a possible increase in food prices", explains Serigati. Once the problems are confirmed, the impact on prices should only appear next year, as the effects will affect the harvest that will be planted this semester. READ ALSO Trump's tariff: see the list of products that were exempt and those that will be impacted by the new rate Debts, climate and lack of fertilizer For Rabobank input analyst Bruno Fonseca, one of the main effects of the rise in fertilizers is the increase in production costs, at a time when farmers are already facing debt. "We have producers who were unable to access credit or purchase fertilizers and will tend to reduce the use of fertilizer", says the analyst. According to Fonseca, the only fertilizer that could be completely removed from the crop in these cases would be phosphorus, as there is a stock of the element in the soil. But this year, that shouldn't happen. “Part of this stock in the soil has already been consumed in recent years, it will not be possible to reduce much”, he explains. For him, all crops can be affected by the shortage of fertilizers and high prices. And purchases of the product by farmers are already late for the summer harvests, he points out. For Wharlhey Nunes, analyst at Consultoria Agro do Itaú BBA, large producers should not be greatly impacted. "Many of them rely on technology at high and ideal levels of application for a while. So, this creates a certain residue in the soil, mainly for nutrients", he explains. Furthermore, they still have access to credit and better purchasing planning, which reduces the impacts of war. On the other hand, he agrees that smaller farmers, who depend on the local market to purchase inputs and do not have easy or sufficient access to credit, should reduce their application. He also believes that this should occur among producers of less profitable crops, such as wheat, coffee, oranges and rice. Furthermore, Serigati, from FGV, points out that the fertilizer may not arrive in time for farmers who are further away from the ports that receive these products, such as Rondônia. According to him, fertilizer usually enters ports in the south of the country. For experts, despite the reduction in the use of fertilizers, the impacts may be smaller if the rains occur at appropriate times for crop development. But, in an El Niño year, this may not happen. See also: 'We don't want to be the last generation to eat this cheese': heat waves threaten the production of Parmigiano Reggiano in Italy Fertilizer crisis Brazil is highly dependent on imports to meet the demand for fertilizers: the country buys 85% of what it consumes from abroad. Until May this year, 1.5% less was imported than in the same period in 2025, according to data from Itaú BBA. In urea alone, the drop was 27%. According to Fonseca, shortly after the conflict began, in February, fertilizer prices began to rise around the world. In the first three weeks of the war alone, the price of urea rose 46%, according to a survey by Rabobank. In June, with the route open, there was relief in prices. Urea returned to pre-conflict levels, according to Itaú BBA. But, with the new closure of the route, prices rose again. Amid insecurity over access to fertilizers, important suppliers decided to restrict exports and prioritize the domestic market. China, responsible for 26% of everything Brazil purchased in 2025, was one of these cases. Russia, origin of 23% of Brazilian imports