Father's Day: Procon reinforces guidelines to avoid problems during purchases The world may face a new wave of food inflation, driven by the combination of the war between Iran and Israel, the conflict in Ukraine and the effects of El Niño on agricultural production. The warning comes from Máximo Torero, chief economist at the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), who predicts a rise in the prices of agricultural commodities later this year, with a stronger impact on food at the end of 2026 and throughout 2027. Table with food: According to experts, the most important thing is to pay attention to signs of hunger and create greater awareness about what you are eating. Getty Image In an interview with Reuters, Torero stated that the transmission of the increase in commodities to the price paid by the consumer usually takes three to six months. "I believe that commodity prices will start to rise more now, and that food will become more expensive by the end of the year. Next year, the increase will certainly be even greater," he said. Food played a central role in the spike in global inflation in 2022. This year, however, prices remained relatively stable, even helping to mitigate, in some countries, the impact of rising energy costs. According to the economist, this stability should be temporary. This is because the rise in oil prices, the reduction in the supply of fertilizers from the Gulf region, the shortage of diesel in some parts of the world and extreme weather events are increasing the costs of agricultural production. This increase, according to him, will inevitably reach the consumer, albeit with some delay. Super El Niño can intensify rains, storms and floods in Brazil; Understand Although the prices of commodities such as wheat, corn and rice have risen in recent months, they still reflect good recent harvests and do not fully incorporate the difficulties expected for the next agricultural cycle. Water-rich fruits and vegetables help maintain children's hydration and balanced diet on hot days. DB Supermercados Ormuz worries the agricultural sector Torero highlighted that the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant portion of the oil and natural gas sold in the world passes, has become a factor of concern for the agricultural sector. "The Strait of Hormuz affects all agricultural inputs. Brent oil is used in water pumping, packaging, processing and transportation. Natural gas is essential for the production of fertilizers," he said. At the same time, Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil and gas infrastructure have reduced the exportable supply of diesel and natural gas — two key inputs for food production. As commodity prices are determined globally, the effects end up being felt in several countries, even though richer economies have greater capacity to protect their producers. "We are hearing this in Europe, the United States, Brazil and Asia. Tight margins are influencing planting decisions," said Torero. Trump has already stated that the US will control the Strait of Hormuz and block access to Iranian ports. REUTERS In the United States, for example, producers of nine main agricultural crops could accumulate losses of US$32 billion (R$164.48 billion) in 2027 without support from the federal government, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation. The entity estimates that all crops analyzed should operate below the financial break-even point next year. The effects are already beginning to appear on world production Wheat and corn planting decreased in the first three months of the war involving Iran, while part of American farmers migrated to soybeans, a crop that requires less fertilizer. In Australia, one of the largest agricultural exporters in the world, the government predicts a 21% drop in the production of winter crops, attributed, in part, to the sharp increase in fuel and fertilizer prices, in addition to uncertainties about the availability of these inputs. How El Niño impacts food Another pressure factor is El Niño, which this year should be especially intense. The phenomenon alters rainfall patterns in several regions of the planet, reduces agricultural productivity, increases commodity prices and can lead tens of millions of people to severe food insecurity. A strong El Niño and a warm Atlantic raise alerts for extreme heat and drought in the Amazon Archives/Rede Amazônica In India, for example, the monsoon season has already started late and forecasts point to below-average rainfall this month, which could harm rice production and put even more pressure on global food prices.