Dollar opens falling, waiting for the BC's new interest rate decision and keeping an eye on the Middle East

a Accumulated for the week: +1.22%; Accumulated for the month: +1.22%; Accumulated for the year: -6.51%. ?Ibovespa

Accumulated for the week: 0%; Accumulated for the month: 0%; Accumulated for the year: +10.47%. Interest decisions remain on the radar After the Federal Reserve (Fed, the American central bank) decided to keep American basic rates unchanged in the range of 3.50% to 3.75% last week, investors turn their attention to the Brazilian BC. The expectation is that the Copom will promote the fourth consecutive cut in the Selic, from 14.25% per year to 14% per year at this Wednesday's meeting. If confirmed, this will be the lowest level of the basic rate since March 2025. The projection of a cut in interest rates is in force despite the resumption of the war in the Middle East, which has increased the price of oil, with the potential to put pressure on Brazilian inflation (via an increase in fuel prices). For the chief economist at C6 Bank, Felipe Salles, even with the new cut, higher inflation expectations on the part of the market, the heated job market and the resilience of the economy require the BC to still act cautiously in its monetary policy decisions. "The lack of resolution of the conflict in the Middle East and the very uncertain external environment reinforce the need for prudence in the management of interest rates," he said. US-Iran deal could be close US President Donald Trump said a deal on the Strait of Hormuz could be reached as early as Wednesday or Thursday, as Iran and Oman moved closer to a treaty to reopen the crucial waterway and potentially help end the war. Trump was asked by reporters traveling with him in California about a report from the news website Axios that said an announcement about the Strait of Hormuz could be made as early as Wednesday. "It could happen. Tomorrow or the day after tomorrow," he said, speaking Tuesday night California time, which was already Wednesday morning in the Middle East. “A lot of progress has been made.” The possible agreement resulting from talks between Iran and Oman calls for ships to enter the Persian Gulf through an Iranian-controlled route and leave through an Omani-controlled route, two regional officials told The Associated Press. Service fees would be charged to ensure safety and preserve the maritime environment, officials said. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said on Tuesday that negotiations between Tehran and Oman were focused on "establishing secure maritime entry and exit routes," routes that "respect sovereign rights while at the same time addressing the national security considerations of both Iran and Oman." “The final results of these negotiations will be announced as soon as they are concluded,” he added, according to Iranian state news agency IRNA. Global stock markets The relief of tensions in the Middle East had a positive impact on European markets this Wednesday, which were mostly rising. At around 8:45 am, the German DAX index was up 0.09%, while the French CAC-40 was up 0.06%. The UK's FTSE 100 fell 0.23%. In Asia, Chinese shares rose to their highest prices of the week, as strong gains in chipmaker stocks outweighed the decline seen in optical module companies. The CSI 300, which brings together the largest companies listed in Shanghai and Shenzen, advanced 1.2%, while the Shanghai index, the SSEC, rose 1.5%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.2% and Japan's Nikkei rose 3.66%, while South Korea's Kospi rose 3.76%. *With information from Reuters news agency. Dollar bills. Luisa Gonzalez/Reuters