Trump tariff: USA today defines new rates to apply to Brazil The Ministry of Finance predicts that the macroeconomic impact of possible new United States taxes on Brazil will have a reduced effect on the Brazilian economy. The possible new fees may be applied within the scope of an open investigation based on the so-called Section 301. ? On June 1, the American government concluded an investigation that accuses Brazil of adopting practices that "encumber or restrict" trade with the United States, including illegal deforestation, piracy and PIX. As a result of the investigation, the US Trade Office (USTR) proposed the application of 25% tariffs on Brazilian goods. According to the ministry, exports showed resilience even after the tariffs in August last year, with a gradual recovery since November. "As the American market accounted for around 11% of Brazilian exports in 2025, equivalent to less than 2% of GDP before the shock, and the redirection of sales to other destinations offset a relevant part of the loss, the direct effect on activity was limited and tends to continue in this way", states an analysis by the Secretariat for Economic Policy (SPE), published in the "MacroFiscal Bulletin". According to the Treasury, even if tariffs are imposed, the measures "provide for exceptions for several products, which tends to keep the aggregate impact modest." Added to these factors, says the ministry, are the actions implemented last year in support of the most exposed sectors, with measures aimed at credit, liquidity and market diversification, which should help mitigate the remaining sectoral effects. Drone image of the Port of Santos (SP) Reuters War in the Middle East According to the Secretariat of Economic Policy, the international scenario, marked by the conflict between the United States and Iran, remains marked by "high uncertainty". "The truce between the parties reduced the risk premium on oil supply and allowed the price of Brent oil to momentarily retreat", highlighted the SPE. "Diplomatic advances momentarily cooled geopolitical risks between May and the beginning of July, but uncertainties have not yet been completely eliminated. The signing of the truce agreement between the United States and Iran for the ceasefire helped to reduce extreme risks associated with the oil supply shock, especially given the low level of global stocks. As a result, the price of the main energy commodity fell to a level close to that observed in the pre-conflict at the beginning of March", continues the analysis. The interruption of the ceasefire last week, however, once again increased the risk premium and oil prices. The re-escalation of the conflict was not incorporated into the analysis and constitutes an upward risk for energy prices and a downward risk for global activity.