El Niño threatens production and could make food more expensive in Brazil; see those most affected

The first impacts should be felt in vegetables, which are more sensitive to changes in the climate. If El Niño is really more intense, food grown by harvest should become more expensive next year. According to Cesar Castro Alves, manager of Agro Consulting at Itaú BBA, the main products that should be affected are corn, coffee, fruits, oranges, sugar cane, wheat and rice. Milk may also be impacted, depending on the level of rainfall in the south of the country. According to the National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet), livestock farming should be the most affected activity in the Center-West and North, where there may be a lack of water for pastures. The institute also predicts that some regions of the country may benefit. In the Northeast, the low volume of rain and heat favor the bean harvest. In the South, above-average rainfall can be good for winter crops. Because of El Niño, the Ministry of Finance must increase its official forecast for inflation in 2026. The expectation is that prices will rise more than estimated in May, when the projection was 4.5%. See below what the production of the main items looks like: Coffee El Niño causes irregular rainfall, which can be intense after periods of drought. This increases the risk of premature and uneven flowering in coffee crops. The flowers that appear may be aborted or form smaller grains. Another point of attention is that the phenomenon favors higher temperatures, episodes of intense heat and loss of water from the soil. ? For Arabica coffee, the most popular in Brazil and most sensitive to this type of stress, there may also be a loss of product quality. This scenario brings concern to the sector, which started the year with expectations of a record harvest, of more than 66 million bags, says Celírio Inácio da Silva, executive director of the Brazilian Coffee Industry Association (Abic). The rains already recorded in producing regions delayed the harvest of conilon coffee. This can reduce quality and productivity, as well as favoring pests and fungi. "This will mean that the supply will not be as good as imagined and the international market, already knowing that stocks are empty, will begin to speculate and this could cause the price of raw materials to rise", says the executive director. As a result, the industry would end up passing prices on to consumers. As for Arabica coffee, the main concern is production in 2027, which producers have already invested in to increase the planting area. If El Niño happens more intensely, the sector expects a loss of 25% of production, says Silva. However, he states that it is still not possible to predict when this will happen, depending on how the phenomenon will develop in the producing regions. Heat leaves coffee 'stressed', can bring down Brazilian production and make the drink more expensive Corn In years of El Niño, the global average corn productivity drops by around 4%, points out Itaú BBA. This happens mainly in tropical regions, such as Southeast Asia, Southern China and Africa. The behavior is the opposite of that of soybeans, which has productivity growth of up to 5%, driven mainly by countries such as the USA, Brazil and Argentina. ? In Brazil, the main impact usually affects the second corn harvest. Irregular rains delay soybean planting in the Midwest. As a result, the harvest is also delayed and reduces the ideal period for planting corn. With El Niño, some producers choose to reduce the planted area or decide to exchange grain for sorghum, says Glauber Silveira, executive director of the Brazilian Association of Corn and Sorghum Producers (Abramilho). “What the producer does is take less risk,” says the executive director. For him, the forecast of excess rain in the South is even more worrying than the drought in the Central-West, because it can reduce productivity and increase the incidence of diseases. Francisco Queiroz, a specialist at Itaú BBA's Agro Consultancy, states that the planted area also grows less because of higher costs and lower profit margins. According to him, a drop in production in Mato Grosso could affect corn prices on the international market. Also know: Peru declares a state of emergency in 40% of the country due to rains caused by El Niño Meat If the price of corn rises in 2027, meat should also become more expensive, since the grain is an ingredient in the feed used in confinement farming, says Alves. Furthermore, animal husbandry may be harmed by the reduced availability of pastures, due to water deficit and drought. ? This harms milk production and makes it difficult for animals destined for slaughter to gain weight, explains Danyella Bonfim, technical advisor at the Brazilian Confederation of Agriculture and Livestock (CNA). Excessive heat also causes stress in animals, which cause them to eat less. Fruits and vegetables In southern Brazil, heavy rains can cause rot, loss of quality and delays in planting. Foods such as onions, potatoes, tomatoes and carrots are the main ones affected, points out Itaú BBA. Apples can be affected at the time of flowering and fruit formation, with the appearance of diseases. The grapes, in Rio Grande do Sul, may experience a drop in production due to excess humidity. In some regions, however, the reduction in reservoir levels can make irrigation difficult. This worries producers of more sensitive fruits, such as mango, papaya and grapes. On the other hand, some crops may benefit. For example, in the Northeast, dry weather and high temperatures will favor melons and watermelons in irrigated crops. For oranges, the expectation is that there will be above average temperatures in the São Paulo citrus belt. The heat can harm flowering, which takes place between September and November, causing flowers to abort and young fruits to fall, points out Itaú BBA. The orange harvest was already estimated to be reduced, due to the lack of profitability, lower consumption and diseases in the crop. With El Niño, the tendency is for it to be even lower, increasing juice prices and reducing the quality of the fruits, explains Wharlhey Nunes, analyst at Consultoria Agro at Itaú BBA. Sugarcane According to Itaú BBA, the phenomenon could cause unseasonal rains in the Center-South, the region responsible for around 90% of sugarcane crushing in the country. Excess moisture can also reduce the quality of the raw material and delay sucrose accumulation. This increases the risk of harvesting the sugarcane before the ideal ripening point. In plantations in the North and Northeast, drought and heat are likely to generate water and thermal stress, compromising plant development. 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