Brazilian families lost R$62.5 billion to bets in 2025, study shows

The conclusion is from the 3rd edition of the Fiscal Bulletin of the Brazilian States, prepared by Comsefaz (National Committee of Finance Secretaries) in partnership with Cicef (Centro Internacional Celso Furtado de Políticas para o Desenvolvimento) based on data from the Central Bank, Epae (Payment Statistics by Economic Activity) and prepared in-house.

The study highlights that the regulation of bets in Brazil, with the mandatory registration of companies from January 2025, coincides with a structural change in transfers via Pix from individuals to legal entities in the arts, culture, sport and recreation sector.

The R$62.5 billion corresponds to the net value of the transaction, that is, the difference between the money wagered by users and the amount returned by companies in the form of prizes.

According to the bulletin, this value is equivalent to approximately 0.68% of the Gross National Available Income of Families, indicating that the advancement of betting platforms has started to produce measurable effects on the financial dynamics of Brazilian households.

The study shows that, until mid-2024, payments from individuals to companies in the arts, culture, sport and recreation sector and the amounts transferred back by these companies remained at relatively close levels.

From 2025 onwards, however, payments destined to the sector grew significantly, while transfers in the opposite direction increased at a much more moderate pace.

"This behavior indicates that the sector started to absorb a substantial volume of resources from families without proportional return, a typical characteristic of betting markets, in which only a portion of the amounts bet returns to players in the form of prizes", says the document.

The numbers in the bulletin are higher than those recorded by the Ministry of Finance for betting houses authorized to operate in the country in 2025. According to the ministry, revenue from legal bets totaled R$36.9 billion.

A study by the consultancy LCA, commissioned by IBJR (Brazilian Institute of Responsible Gaming), however, estimates that illegal betting represented somewhere around 41% to 51% of the total market.

The difference between the Comsefaz estimate (R$62.5 billion) and the Treasury data (R$36.9 billion) is R$25.6 billion, equivalent to around 41% of the total estimated by the bulletin, a percentage that coincides with the bottom of the range projected by the LCA, although the surveys are not directly comparable.

The bulletin also analyzed the impact of the entry of bets into the regulated market on the volume of transactions via Pix between October 2024 and March 2026.

To do this, the researchers estimated what the expected volume of transfers from individuals to companies in the arts, culture, sports and recreation sector would be if the change caused by the regulation had not occurred. They then compared this projection with the actually recorded values. The difference between the two scenarios was interpreted as the impact attributable to bets.

As this is a statistical simulation, the authors emphasize that the result does not represent a proven cause-and-effect relationship.

The additional average monthly volume attributed to bets was estimated at R$24.1 billion. Restricting the analysis to the year 2025, the accumulated amount reaches R$350.97 billion, highlighting the magnitude of the impact on the annual volume of transactions.

The bulletin highlights, however, that the ban on betting for Bolsa Família beneficiaries, in October 2025, produced a slowdown in the growth of transactions and the approximation between the estimated and observed volume of transfers.

According to the study, the fact that the ban had a measurable effect on the aggregate volume of transactions suggests that lower-income families have a relevant participation in the Brazilian online sports betting market.

"Together with the high levels of debt and income impairment, this result reinforces the diagnosis of financial vulnerability of Brazilian families in the current economic cycle", states the study.

Government will impose interval between bets and create new restrictions for bets

Automatic bets, coin noise and the use of timers on the platforms will be prohibited. Ordinance complements the one issued in July, which established limits on advertising for these companies