El Niño could harm flowering and reduce production of the next coffee harvest The consultancy Safras & Mercado estimates that Brazil, the largest producer and exporter of soybeans in the world, will harvest a record harvest of 180.1 million tons in 2026/27. The volume represents growth of 0.98% compared to the previous cycle, but the expansion is expected to be limited by tighter profit margins for producers and concern about the possible effects of the El Niño climate phenomenon. Planting of the new crop should begin in mid-September. According to the consultancy, the area destined for soybeans should grow 1.2%, reaching 49.1 million hectares. According to Safras & Mercado analyst Rafael Silveira, the outlook continues to be for increased production, as long as El Niño does not cause relevant climate problems during the development of the crop. 2026 promises soybeans The consultancy also assesses that, in this cycle, the market is more favorable to the cultivation of soybeans than corn in the summer harvest in the Center-South region, which encourages producers to expand the planting of the oilseed. Even with the relatively modest expansion of the cultivated area and a slight reduction in average productivity, Safras & Mercado considers that the country is capable of achieving a historic harvest. Silveira explains that, although producers are facing lower profit margins, the good harvests recorded in recent harvests have improved the relationship between costs and revenues. This keeps cultivation economically viable and sustains the increase, albeit small, in the planted area. Complaint says that businessmen deforested forests to plant soybeans and corn Reproduction/Sentence On the other hand, the possibility of a more intense El Niño is worrying. The climate phenomenon changes the pattern of rainfall and temperatures and can affect the development of crops precisely in the most important months for grain formation. "If this scenario is confirmed, there could be a negative impact on productivity levels," said Silveira. According to him, the consultancy already works with yield estimates lower than those of the last harvest in most producing regions. Another factor of concern is the increase in production costs, mainly due to the rise in fertilizer prices in the first half of the year. This could lead some producers to reduce investments in technology and crop management, which tends to limit the productive potential of the 2026/27 harvest. The projected average productivity is 3,686 kilos per hectare, slightly below the 3,692 kilos per hectare recorded in the previous cycle.