When the river warns: the challenge of anticipating the impacts of the ebb in the Amazon

Dry periods tend to affect the logistics of transporting products made in the Manaus Free Trade Zone. Alexandro Pereira/Rede Amazônica Saying that the ebb requires planning is nothing new in Amazonas. The issue resurfaces every year, especially after the severe droughts of 2023 and 2024, which interrupted routes, isolated communities, increased costs and affected supply and industrial production. The most important question, therefore, is not discovering that rivers descend. It is understanding how a known, monitored and, to some extent, predictable situation can be faced with more coordination, reducing uncertainty about regional logistics and its effects on the economy and the population. The river is still in normal condition, but the warning has already been given ? Join the g1 AM channel on WhatsApp Even before the low tide caused a critical restriction on navigation, four large shipowners released statements about possible surcharges for cargo originating or ending in Manaus. Maersk, Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC), CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd presented different values, criteria and reference dates for September and October. The announcements do not mean that the fees are already being effectively charged. They inform future values ??and dates, related to projections of reduced navigability and subject to the conditions presented by the companies and the rules established by the National Waterway Transport Agency (Antaq). In the case of Maersk, the company states that its communication is of a planning and information nature and that the surcharge will only be applied if the expected restrictions materialize and produce operational impacts that require extraordinary measures. The company reported the value of US$1,228 per dry container, with different reference dates depending on the origin of the cargo. MSC communicated a Low Water Surcharge (LWS) of US$1,400 per dry container and US$1,900 per refrigerated container for shipments destined for Manaus, with a staggered start scheduled from September, depending on the origin of the cargo. CMA CGM reported a LWS of US$753 per TEU, - a unit equivalent to a 20-foot container -, with application expected from September for cargo from international markets destined for Manaus and from October for shipments from the Amazonian capital abroad. The company said it will continue to monitor river conditions. Hapag-Lloyd, in turn, communicated a surcharge of US$1,350 per container, applicable to all types of equipment with a tariff date from September 12th. The company also informed that it may adjust the start of the application if the critical low water period is postponed. In light of the first three announcements, the Amazonas Commercial Association (ACA) reported having presented two petitions to Antaq: the first, on August 4, related to the Maersk statement; and the second, on August 10, after warnings from MSC and CMA CGM. The entity requested that the agency examine the communications and monitor compliance with the criteria established for possible charges. Hapag-Lloyd's announcement was released later and became part of the scenario followed by the production sector. The discussion has an important antecedent. In 2025, Antaq granted a precautionary measure related to the charging of the so-called drought tax on maritime transport operations of containers originating or ending in Manaus. The decision, later endorsed by Ruling No. 733/2025, established the parameter of 17.7 meters for the hydrological cycles of 2025 and 2026 on the Negro River. In a recommendation issued in March 2026, the Federal Public Ministry (MPF) advised that any charge should observe the hydrological parameter defined by Antaq. At levels higher than 17.7 meters, possible extraordinary costs should be documented and submitted for analysis by the agency. The document also mentions prior communication to users, identification of the triggering event, calculation basis, services covered and period of application. This history does not prevent companies from planning their operations and communicating projected risks to customers in advance. At the same time, it shows that the eventual application of surcharges involves regulatory criteria and institutional monitoring. The announcements indicate that the hydrological risk has already entered the planning of shipping companies. The ACA's manifestation, in turn, demonstrates the production sector's concern with the effects of these costs on industry, commerce and supply. The hydrological and climatic scenario In the bulletin released on August 12, the Brazilian Geological Survey (SGB) reported that the Amazon River Basin recorded below-average rainfall, which intensified the ebb process. Despite the decline, most monitored stations remained within the normal range for the period. The main exception was the Branco River, in Roraima, with very low levels for this time of year. In Manaus, the Negro River reached 26.55 meters in the August 11th measurement used by the SGB, after a reduction of 52 centimeters in one week. Even with the decrease, the quota remained within the expected range for the period. In the daily reading at the Port of Manaus on August 13, the level reached 26.41 meters, eight centimeters lower than the previous day. On this date, therefore, the level of the Negro River is still far from the hydrological parameter of 17.7 meters considered by Antaq for the 2025 and 2026 cycles. The data does not rule out the possibility of difficulties in the coming months, but indicates that the shipowners' announcements have a preventive nature and are based on projections of future restrictions on navigation, not on a critical condition already established in Manaus. El Niño remains another factor of concern. In the update released on August 13, the Climate Prediction Center of the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reported that the phenomenon is strengthening and presents pro