Trillionaire for 2 months: SpaceX's 'reverse gear' that made Elon Musk lose billions of dollars

SpaceX grows at different rates The first balance sheet released since the IPO shows a company experiencing strong expansion, but which is made up of businesses with different characteristics. Revenue almost doubled in one year, but the expansion also required heavy investments: US$18.37 billion (R$95.9 billion) in just three months, more than six times the amount recorded in the same period in 2025. The company's three main areas grow at different rates. Satellite internet is already profitable, while artificial intelligence and space launches still prioritize expansion and investment. (see more in the infographic below) It is this difference that Andrew Menzies, director of operations at Openbook Analytics, considers central to understanding SpaceX's accounts. In a report, the expert highlights that, in 2025, the connectivity segment generated US$4.42 billion (R$23.07 billion) in operating profit. The AI ??area accumulated an operating loss of US$6.35 billion (R$33.14 billion). For Morningstar equity analyst Nicolas Owens, the result shows a company that is growing while making a heavy bet on the future. “The widest range of potential outcomes of SpaceX’s future value lies in its artificial intelligence endeavors,” says Owens. According to him, the market needs to decide how much it is willing to pay today for businesses that will still have to prove their potential in the coming years. Where SpaceX is putting its billions Arte/g1 AI and Starship: the billion-dollar bets Most of SpaceX's investments in the second quarter were directed at artificial intelligence. Among the movements are: ?? Expansion of cloud computing infrastructure and projects such as Colossus II, plans to use Nvidia chips in satellites focused on artificial intelligence. ? US$60 billion (R$313.16 billion) agreement to acquire Cursor, expanding the offer of AI tools for companies. It is this movement that Menzies summarizes as a phase of “aggressive reinvestment”. “The company is channeling capital into developing Starship, manufacturing satellites and AI infrastructure,” says the director of Openbook Analytics. The challenge, according to Owens, is to make all this infrastructure start generating revenue and justifying the money invested. “Even with its heightened volatility since the IPO, we believe investors are still considering more optimistic scenarios for Starship's reusability and the commercial advantage of orbital data centers than what is most likely at this time.” But artificial intelligence is not SpaceX's only long-term bet. The development of Starship, the main space project, also consumes billions. ? In 2025, the company invested more than US$3 billion (R$15.66 billion) in the project, in addition to another US$930 million (R$4.85 billion) in the first quarter of this year. For the market, therefore, it is not enough for SpaceX to grow. It is necessary to know whether the investments made now will be able to create businesses large enough to justify the money spent. SpaceX has developed a system that allows Starship to return to base after launch and be recovered on the platform from which it launched. Reproduction Starlink pays the bill — but also faces pressure This is where the importance of Starlink becomes more prominent. Satellite internet service is today one of SpaceX's main businesses and helps finance the expansion of other areas. The customer base doubled in one year, to 12 million, but average revenue per user fell from US$85 (R$443.65) to US$66 (R$344.48) between the second quarter of 2025 and the same period this year. According to Menzies, SpaceX itself expects this value to continue to decline as it moves towards lower-income markets and offers more competitive prices. For now, the growth in the number of customers compensates for the drop in average revenue per user. However, if Starlink needs to grow more and more to sustain investments in other areas, the evolution of its profitability becomes an important issue for the market. "A continued decline in revenue per subscriber, if not offset by volume growth, would compress margins in the connectivity segment — the only part of the business that currently generates significant operating profit." For experts, the company still has money to continue investing and expanding its business. What has changed is the market's perception of these bets: how much will they be worth — and how long will it take to pay off? The answer could determine not only the value of SpaceX, but also the direction of Musk's fortune.