The increasing probability of a very strong El Niño is leading all spheres of public power in Brazil to prepare for more extreme weather events in the coming months. This movement is not widespread and varies from state to state, municipality to municipality. But the potential intensity of the phenomenon has firmly placed the issue on the governments' agenda this semester.
Tool monitors what governments are doing to face El Niño
The increasing probability of a very strong El Niño is leading all spheres of public power in Brazil to prepare for more extreme weather events in the coming months. This movement is not widespread and varies from state to state,...
To check how these actions are progressing, the Talanoa Institute launched the El Niño Monitor, a tool to monitor the different plans and actions announced by municipalities, states and the Union to face the effects of the phenomenon. It shows that the issue has gained importance in public authorities, but there is still a lack of greater coordination...
- It shows that the issue has gained importance in public authorities, but there is still a lack of greater coordination between the different instances to make the response effective.
- “Many acts are far from what would be effective preparation, some are clearly just for the record, but it is a fact that something has happened in recent years in the attention given by...
- “There is still a lack of coordination, governance, technical capabilities down to the local level and, of course, financing”, he added.
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To check how these actions are progressing, the Talanoa Institute launched the El Niño Monitor, a tool to monitor the different plans and actions announced by municipalities, states and the Union to face the effects of the phenomenon. It shows that the issue has gained importance in public authorities, but there is still a lack of greater coordination between the different instances to make the response effective.
“Many acts are far from what would be effective preparation, some are clearly just for the record, but it is a fact that something has happened in recent years in the attention given by public managers to the climate issue”, said Liuca Yonaha, vice-president of Talanoa, n’((o)) eco. “There is still a lack of coordination, governance, technical capabilities down to the local level and, of course, financing”, he added.
Two factors can explain the greater focus of public authorities on the new El Niño. First, the experience of the last time the phenomenon happened, between 2023 and 2024, when there was an extreme drought in the Amazon, drought in the Southeast and historic rains in Rio Grande do Sul. And second, highlights Fantástico, the intensity expected for the new El Niño, which could be the strongest in 76 years of records, with impacts even more significant than two years ago.
Fantástico also shows the potential impacts of “Super El Niño”. In addition to the intense rains in the South and the drought in the North and Southeast, the phenomenon could affect Brazilian crops, with potential impacts on food prices and, consequently, inflation. Another concern is with fire, which should find more favorable conditions to spread in the Amazon and Pantanal, and in states like São Paulo.
All of these potential impacts do not escape the attention of the insurance industry, whose companies are being pressured to review their climate risks to anticipate possible losses and operate in an even more unstable climate scenario in the coming months. According to O Sul, the sector's understanding in Brazil is that excessive rainfall in some regions could affect “mass lines”, such as insurance that protects vehicles and homes, in addition to insurance contracted by companies. Another concern is the impact on agribusiness and, consequently, on rural insurance.
"Today, most projections point to a strong El Niño. This is the scenario we are working with," said Jarbas Medeiros, from the National Federation of General Insurance (FenSeg). The expectation is for a greater impact from September onwards, with the greatest possibility of torrential rains concentrated in a short space of time. "No one can predict exactly when or where this will happen. And this is decisive for the size of the losses."
Another point, highlighted by Pedro Cortês on CNN Brasil, is the low insurance coverage in the country. Data from the National Confederation of Insurance Companies (CNseg) indicate that, between 2022 and 2024, 67 relevant climate events caused an estimated loss of R$184 billion in Brazil, but only 9% of these losses were covered by insurance. A relevant part of this loss ends up being assumed by the public authorities through emergency and reconstruction actions.