Real estate credit may become more expensive with new fundraising model

The change, which is being implemented gradually and will come into full effect in 2027, foresees the progressive replacement of savings as the main source of resources for real estate credit with capital market instruments, such as real estate bills. The proposal was created after discussions between the government, banks and the construction sector.

Gilneu Vivan, director of Regulation at the Central Bank, says that the first results of the testing period are encouraging. He stated that there was a reversal of the drop in real estate credit grants and that the first months saw an increase in operations.

"The objective was to create incentives for the market to reorganize itself and seek the gradual replacement of savings as the primary funding for real estate credit", said Vivan during the Abecip Summit 2026, held this Tuesday (18).

The concern is that it is not yet clear how the indexes of financing contracts will be defined under the new model, which is less dependent on savings.

With the greater share of bills and other instruments raised in the capital market, banks now need mechanisms to manage the financial risk of operations. At the same time, consumers tend to look for installments and contracts with greater predictability. "On the one hand, institutions want an index that allows efficient risk management. On the other, the credit borrower seeks a contract where the index is predictable", said Vivan.

It is precisely this difference between the risk of those who finance and the need for predictability of those who take the credit that is one of the main challenges of the new model, according to Michel Cury, president of Abecip and director of real estate credit at Itaú.

In the main panel of the event that debated the new credit model, Cury drew attention to the long horizon of the real estate chain. "The individual is probably taking the most relevant credit of their life for the longest term. The care that institutions need to take is the stability of the price at the end," he stated.

"Market funding is exposed to market volatility. It is a big challenge how this volatility will be transformed into the customer rate", he said. According to Cury, this change tends to put pressure on the cost of financing. "It is natural that this brings price pressure to real estate credit operations," he stated.

The Central Bank also warned of the risk of the cost of housing financing rising as banks rely more on the capital market to raise funds.

The SFH (Housing Financial System) currently has an interest limit of 12% per year on the index. For Vivan, this rule can represent a challenge in periods of higher rates, precisely because the cost of funding through market instruments can follow the financial conditions of the economy.

Under the new model, 80% of resources must be allocated to operations covered by the SFH. Savings will continue to play a complementary role, helping to reduce the financial cost of operations.

The change comes at a time when demand for real estate credit remains strong, despite high interest rates. In the first half of the year, concessions for the purchase and construction of properties totaled R$180.9 billion, an increase of 23% compared to the same period in 2025, according to Abecip. Around 850 thousand properties were financed in the period, considering resources from the SBPE (Brazilian Savings and Loan System), FGTS (Service Time Guarantee Fund) and free portfolios.

At the same time, the main traditional source of resources is not keeping up with this pace. Savings accumulated a net withdrawal of R$273 billion in the last five years and ended the first half of the year practically stable, at R$764 billion. The real estate credit portfolio linked to the SBPE has already reached R$601 billion, equivalent to 121% of the targetable savings resources, a sign that banks have been turning to other sources to sustain operations

The Central Bank, according to Vivan, will keep the model under evaluation and may make adjustments during its implementation.

For Inês Magalhães, vice-president of Housing at Caixa, the new model was fundamental for the sector, but cannot be analyzed in isolation.

She cited the participation of real estate financing in GDP (Gross Domestic Product), regulatory issues, rules for the financial system and notary procedures as factors that also influence credit expansion.

"Housing is not the result of one of the four mathematical operations. It is a second degree equation", he stated during the opening of the event.

For the Caixa executive, despite the search for new sources of resources, FGTS and SBPE remain "fundamental" for housing financing, although they are no longer sufficient to sustain its expansion alone.

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