Pig prices fall to the 3rd lowest level in history in SP: 'oversupply and low demand', analyzes USP

Pork Reproduction/TV TEM The combination of oversupply of animals and weakened demand, registered in the second half of July 2026, threatens the independent pork market in São Paulo. The scenario made the price of pigs ready for slaughter in the capital and interior of São Paulo reach the lowest level in the entire historical series, with an average of R$ 5.18 per kilo in markets monitored by the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (Cepea), at USP in Piracicaba (SP). According to a Cepea survey, released last Thursday (20), the sharp devaluation in the month, driven by school holidays, accumulates a drop of 43.1% in the year for the live animal, compared to the real prices of December 2035. The special carcass recorded a decline of 36.2% in the same period. According to Cepea researchers, this scenario is quite similar to that observed in 2022. For comparison purposes, the worst moment in the market that year, in the same market, was observed in February, when the average was R$5.97/kg, in real values ??(deflated by the IGP-DI of Jul/26). Pork prices fell in March 2026 Reproduction/TV TEM “[This] put pressure on the sector’s margins, generating losses for shrimp farmers and forcing the closure of the activities of independent producers”, stated the Esalq Study Center. The SP-5 area, accompanied by Esalq-USP researchers, covers the cities of Bragança Paulista (SP), Campinas (SP), Piracicaba (SP), São Paulo (SP) and Sorocaba (SP). According to the Study Center, demand for pork is typically weakened in the second half of the month, due to the population's lower purchasing power. "Consequently, it reduces the demand for live animals. Furthermore, the school holiday period reinforced the reduction in demand, leading the averages to decline, despite the increases recorded at the beginning of July", he explains. Consumers take advantage of the drop in the price of pork, but producers are on the receiving end Surprise for the sector The Research Center highlights that the low scenario for both meat and live meat this year is surprising for the sector, which expected firm demand in 2026, as observed in 2025. In addition to the weakened demand, Cepea understands that the current moment in the market is the result of greater investments made by the sector last year and which result in greater production and, therefore, greater domestic supply in 2026. March Pork carcass prices in March 2026, pork meat gained competitiveness in relation to beef protein prices and the difference in values reached the highest level in the last four years, since 2022. The average price for special pork carcasses sold wholesale in Greater São Paulo closed at 10.06 per kilo in March 2026. The mark represents a decline of 2.8% compared to February this year. The price swing between competing meats was explained by the low liquidity in pig farming during Lent, when consumer demand usually falls, and also by the rise in beef protein exports. The intense pace in beef shipments has been observed since 2025. Pork: February of falls Average prices for live pigs recorded drops of up to 20% in February 2026 in producing regions in the interior of São Paulo, including Piracicaba (SP). The downward movement in prices during the period was explained by the industry's low demand for lots of animals on the independent market. "It resulted in a disruption of internal supply", analyze researchers from the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (Cepea) on the University of São Paulo (USP) campus in Piracicaba (SP). Live pigs were traded at an average of R$6.91 per kilo in February this year. In January, the animal was priced at R$8.24 per kilo, a drop of more than 16%, in the SP-5 square (Bragança Paulista, Campinas, Piracicaba, São Paulo and Sorocaba). In comparison with February 2025, when the product was sold at R$8.66/kg, the devaluation reached 20%. VIDEOS: everything about Piracicaba and the region See more news from the region on g1 Piracicaba