Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro maintain a technical tie in the 2nd round, with 47% to 44%, points out BTG/Nexus

The scenario was stable in relation to the last round, released on August 10th, when they reached the same rates. In the first round simulation, the PT member scored 41%, and the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL), 36%. Both fluctuated one percentage point in relation to the previous survey, maintaining a distance of five percentage points.

Ronaldo Caiado (PSD), former governor of Goiás, maintains 5% of voting intentions in this Monday's survey. Renan Santos (Missão) scores 4% once again, and Romeu Zema (Novo), also with 4%, fluctuates one percentage point compared to last week. Samara Martins (UP) and Augusto Cury (Avante) have 1% each. Blanks and nulls total 5%, and 2% did not know how to answer or did not answer.

2,003 voters aged 16 or over from across the country were interviewed by telephone, from Friday (14) to Sunday (16). The margin of error is two percentage points, with a 95% confidence interval. The research is registered with the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) under code BR-03317/2026.

The current president scores 45%, one percentage point less than last week, in the second round simulation with Caiado, who remains at 42%. The PT member has 46% against Zema, with 41%. On August 10, they had, respectively, 47% and 40%. Lula, with 47%, fluctuated one percentage point in the dispute scenario against Renan Santos, who appears with 36% and dropped one point.

The electoral campaign on the internet and in the streets began this Sunday (16). Lula launched himself for re-election in an event held in São Bernardo do Campo (SP), with the motto "Brazil ready for more", evoking his past as a trade unionist and the achievements of previous terms.

In a 35-minute speech, the president promised to create a Ministry of Public Security, expand comprehensive schools and invest in industry. He also demanded that activists know how to compare his government's numbers with those of Jair Bolsonaro's government (2019-2022), citing data on education, employment and inflation, as well as initiatives such as the end of Income Tax for those earning up to R$5,000.

Flávio began the campaign on Copacabana Beach, in Rio de Janeiro, with a series of attacks on the Lula government and the STF (Supreme Federal Court), as well as promises in the area of public security. The senator played the audio of an old speech by his father about patriotism, family, faith and the desire to "bring happiness to Brazil".

The event in Copacabana sought to reproduce the scenario of acts that marked Jair Bolsonaro's political trajectory. Flávio's campaign seeks to associate him with his father's image with other elements. On Saturday (15), the candidate went to a bakery previously frequented by the former president in Barra da Tijuca and ate grilled bread with condensed milk.

The current president and senator also waved to the female electorate. Flávio promised to combat violence against women, criticizing feminicide rates, and Lula spoke of ending gender-based violence. "Women of this country, never lower your heads, because we men need to learn to respect you as companions, not as servants," said the PT member.

The current president's campaign deals with the impacts of three Federal Police investigations against Fábio Luís Lula da Silva, one of Lula's sons, which began to be used by the opposition. Known in the public debate as Lulinha, he is being investigated on suspicion of influence peddling within the scope of Operation Sem Desconto, which investigates deviations in the INSS.

In an interview with the podcasts Não Inviabilize and As Cunhãs, on Friday (14), the president said that he does not know the truth about what happened, but that he believes in his son's innocence and defends the continuity of the investigations. "If my son is to blame, he will pay. Now, he has been accused of many things. My son appears every election," said the PT member.

Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign, on the other hand, is impacted by the choice of vice-president, federal deputy Alfredo Gaspar (PL-AL), the target of a PF investigation request at the STF on suspicion of rape of a vulnerable person. The indictment claims that Gaspar had a relationship with a 13-year-old girl, which resulted in a pregnancy, and points to alleged bribery attempts to keep the girl's family silent.

The whistleblower has changed his version since the case came to light. First, he sought out federal deputy Lindbergh Farias (PT-RJ) and senator Soraya Thronicke (PSB-MS) during the INSS Mixed CPI, of which Gaspar was rapporteur, to make the accusations. He then sought out Gaspar's office and, in a statement to the Legislative Police of the Chamber of Deputies, said that Lindbergh had been framed. A week later, he joined the PL.

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