The median of the Focus report for the 2026 IPCA fell for the second week in a row, from 5.30% to 5.16% - 0.66 percentage points above the target pursued by the Central Bank, of 4.50%. Considering only the 55 estimates updated in the last five business days, which are more sensitive to news, the median decreased from 5.23% to 5.10%.
Focus: 2026 IPCA median goes from 5.30% to 5.16%, above the inflation target ceiling
The median of the Focus report for the 2026 IPCA fell for the second week in a row, from 5.30% to 5.16% - 0.66 percentage points above the target pursued by the Central Bank, of 4.50%. Considering only the 55 estimates updated in the last...
On the other hand, the market's intermediate estimate for the 2027 IPCA rose from 4.18% to 4.20%. The Focus median for 2028 inflation remained at 3.70%.
- For 2029, it continued at 3.50% for the 45th consecutive week.
- With the drop this week, Focus's projection for the 2026 IPCA was slightly below that estimated by the Central Bank for the period, of 5.20%, according to the communication from the June...
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On the other hand, the market's intermediate estimate for the 2027 IPCA rose from 4.18% to 4.20%. A month earlier, it was 4.10%. Considering only the 55 projections updated in the last five business days, it remained at 4.20%.
The Focus median for 2028 inflation remained at 3.70%. A month earlier, it was 3.68%. For 2029, it continued at 3.50% for the 45th consecutive week.
With the drop this week, Focus's projection for the 2026 IPCA was slightly below that estimated by the Central Bank for the period, of 5.20%, according to the communication from the June meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom). The estimate for 2027 remains above that predicted by the Committee, of 3.70%. According to the Monetary Policy Report (RPM) for the second quarter, the BC projects that the IPCA will be at 3.1% at the end of 2028.
From 2025 onwards, the inflation target became continuous, based on the IPCA accumulated over 12 months. The center is 3%, with a tolerance of 1.5 percentage points more or less. If inflation stays outside this range for six consecutive months, the BC is considered to have missed the target.
*Content prepared with the help of Artificial Intelligence, reviewed and edited by the Broadcast editorial team, Grupo Estado’s real-time news system.
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