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Flávio Bolsonaro leads voting intentions for president in Mato Grosso, according to research

Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) appears in the lead in the race for the Presidency of the Republic in Mato Grosso, according to research by the Real Time Big Data institute, released this Wednesday (12). The survey assessed the voting...

By 365 Breaking News Editorial Team 2 min read Nortão do Mato Grosso
365 Summary

In the stimulated first round scenario, in which the names of possible candidates are presented to interviewees, Flávio Bolsonaro records 43% of voting intentions. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) appears in second place, with 33%.

  • The distance between the two candidates is 10 percentage points.
  • Even considering the margin of error of two percentage points, plus or minus, the senator maintains an advantage over the current president.

Editorial reading aid based only on information contained in this story and its identified source.

Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) appears in the lead in the race for the Presidency of the Republic in Mato Grosso, according to research by the Real Time Big Data institute, released this Wednesday (12). The survey assessed the voting intentions of Mato Grosso voters for the presidential election.

In the stimulated first round scenario, in which the names of possible candidates are presented to interviewees, Flávio Bolsonaro records 43% of voting intentions. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) appears in second place, with 33%.

The distance between the two candidates is 10 percentage points. Even considering the margin of error of two percentage points, plus or minus, the senator maintains an advantage over the current president.

Following the survey, Renan Santos (Missão) appears, with 8%, and the former governor of Goiás, Ronaldo Caiado (PSD), with 6% of voting intentions.

The former governor of Minas Gerais, Romeu Zema (Novo), and Augusto Cury (Avante) registered 1% each. Other names accounted for 1% of the citations.

Blank and invalid votes represent 4% of those interviewed, while 3% said they were undecided or preferred not to respond.

Second round simulation The institute also tested a possible second round between Flávio Bolsonaro and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

In this scenario, the PL senator increases his advantage and reaches 51% of voting intentions, while the president registers 37%.

The difference between the two candidates rises to 14 percentage points, a percentage higher than the survey's margin of error.

Methodology The Real Time Big Data survey interviewed 1,600 voters in Mato Grosso between the 7th and 11th of August.

The survey has a margin of error of two percentage points, plus or minus, a confidence level of 95% and is registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under protocol BR-06833/2026.

See the research: