The impact of the back and forth of import tariffs imposed by the United States is still being assimilated by sectors not benefiting from exemptions. Many had structured their production chains around the American market, such as metals, wood and various manufactures. "In the soluble coffee sector, 50% of Brazilian exports went to the United States. They increased sales to other destinations, but even so the share was very large. The same thing happens with steel, aluminum and copper", explains Welber Barral, a specialist in international trade. "The United States was a big buyer many decades ago, so you can't diversify immediately. For footwear, for example, the US is not a big destination for the sector as a whole, but some companies in particular were very dependent on the American market," he notes. Trade barriers also harm importers. Big companies like Coca-Cola and Tesla have signaled that it is not so simple to replace the coffee, orange juice and rare metals they used to buy from Brazil with low tariffs. The American consumer ends up paying this bill. Shattered trust accelerates separation On the side of the country's partners, trust is shaken. "In the case of Brazil, the immediate consequence is to hasten a divorce or a decoupling process that has already been carried out over the last 20 years. It is clear that the situation affects, but it is the continuation of a trend in a country that was Brazil's largest trading partner for many decades, and which is no longer and is in constant decline", highlights Carlos Frederico Coelho, professor of international trade at PUC Rio. "The tariff did not inaugurate this movement, but it certainly accelerates it." Trump's untimely announcements amplified a movement around the world to open new partnerships and intensify existing ones. Since 2025, together with Mercosur, five fronts have advanced for Brazil: trade agreements with the European Union, EFTA (Norway, Switzerland, Liechtenstein and Iceland) and Singapore were closed, in addition to the opening of negotiations with Japan and diplomatic reactivation to conclude negotiations with the United Arab Emirates, Canada, India, Vietnam and Indonesia. The result is that, by 2024, only 12% of Brazilian exports were covered by trade agreements, and the share rose to 31%. Last year, figures from the Ministry of Development, Industry, Commerce and Services (MDIC) confirm diversification, with record exports to 42 countries. Germany, for example, has consolidated itself as the fourth largest partner and intends to double exchanges with Brazil over the next five years. "An indirect effect, probably not desired by Trump, was the increase in these agreements by Brazil and several other countries, to try to diversify from the American market. And it's not just Mercosur", highlights Welber Barral, former Brazilian Secretary of Foreign Trade. "If you look, countries like Indonesia have made a lot of progress in new agreements. The European Union itself has made progress in the agreement with India", he points out. The Chinese risk The 6.6% drop in Brazilian imports by the United States was offset by the equivalent increase for China and Argentina, respectively Brazil's first and third main trading partners. Today, Beijing absorbs almost a third of Brazilian exports. “Diversifying is a little more complex than people say. What is worrying about trade with China is that, when you analyze this agenda, almost 90% is concentrated in four products: meat, ore, soy and oil”, warns Coelho. "This should scare us, because if China slows down, Brazil will suffer immensely. It is not desirable, for countries so far away, for Brazil to have 30% of exports going to just one country." Barral agrees with the risks of this new dependence, but considers that trade with Asian countries in general is also on the rise, such as India, Indonesia and Vietnam. “Other Asian countries could also become major importers in the future, especially of agricultural commodities”, he states.