After a lull in prices, olive oil is once again threatened by extreme heat and fires in Europe

However, it revised its forecast for the bloc's olive oil production, which is expected to decline by 5% in the 2025/26 cycle. The drop is driven mainly by Greece, where production is expected to shrink by 18%. The report warned that prospects for the next harvest depended on the absence of new extreme weather events, due to the vulnerability of olive groves. A few weeks later, this risk scenario began to materialize. According to the British newspaper The Guardian, the Spanish agricultural association ASAJA states that the forest fires that intensified in the country from mid-July hit orchards, vineyards, agricultural areas, greenhouses and olive groves, affecting products such as citrus fruits, avocados, almonds, vegetables and olives. Thousands of hectares were devastated. For the entity, the main concern is not the reduction in exports, but the increase in production costs, which tends to be passed on to consumers. Spain also continues to face water restrictions that reduce soil moisture and increase the risk of olives falling prematurely. Furthermore, even before the July fires, the country's cereal harvest had already been revised downwards, from 24 million to around 18.5 million tons, increasing the pressure on agricultural prices. As the world's largest producer of olive oil, Spain plays a central role in shaping global prices. The Data España portal highlights that market stability remains fragile after the recent drop in olive oil costs, which followed a period of record values. At the beginning of the year, intense rains caused flooding in producing areas and reduced harvest forecasts. Now, extreme drought and fires are once again threatening production. Workers use olive branches to try to put out the flames in the Megara Valley, Greece REUTERS/Louisa Gouliamaki Greece fights against destruction of olive groves The impact on olive oil is particularly relevant in Greece. “It's a terrible feeling when you build something with so much effort, and when money is not easy to come by,” producer Anastasia Hatzoglou told Reuters about the country's fires. The rapidly spreading flames destroyed lush forests and caused extensive damage to olive trees just months before harvest, a much-anticipated annual ritual in many Greek homes. She stated that her home suffered extensive damage and that her olive trees were burned. "It was so much effort, and when you take care of your property, your land, the oil you produce every year, it's not good at all," he said. According to the Greek portal Neakriti, the water deficit, worsened by heat waves and fires, has reduced the productivity of olive groves in the country. In addition to the damage caused directly by fire, producers report losses caused by smoke, worsening air quality and the greater incidence of pests and diseases favored by high temperatures. The result can be a reduction in the size of the fruits and the quality of the oil produced. The Italian portal Dissapore describes a similar scenario in other Mediterranean countries. According to the publication, fires hit olive groves in Greece, Italy and Portugal. Prolonged heat also facilitates the spread of pests. Forest firefighting helicopter in action on Mount Kitheronas, near Psatha, west of Athens, Greece REUTERS/Louisa Gouliamaki Agricultural production affected Climate impacts are not limited to olive trees. According to The Guardian newspaper, the French association Légumes de France estimates losses of thousands of tons of vegetables, including lettuce, carrots, garlic, onions and leeks. In some regions, production can drop by up to 50% due to lack of rain and water scarcity. Extreme weather is still affecting vineyards in traditional regions such as Champagne, Bordeaux and Burgundy, where accelerated ripening of grapes threatens to reduce harvest yields. In June and July 2026, Europe faced one of the most severe heat waves ever recorded, with temperatures above 40 °C in countries such as Germany, France, Denmark and the Czech Republic. The extreme heat caused more than 1,300 deaths in the last week of June alone, in addition to interruptions in public services, melting asphalt and cancellation of events in several European cities. Scientists say this type of event would have been "practically impossible" without global warming, and that Europe is already warming twice as fast as the global average, with average temperatures 2.5°C above pre-industrial levels. This set of factors consolidated 2026 as one of the most extreme summers on the continent, aggravating pressure on vulnerable agricultural systems.