Could the heat wave in Spain lead to an increase in the price of olive oil?

Freepik Olive Oil The fires that hit southern Europe this summer have rekindled the warning about the climate crisis in the region and turned attention to Spain, the world's largest producer of olive oil and one of the affected countries. The concern is about a new crisis in the price of the product, which, until now, has been a hypothesis rejected by industry associations. ??Do you have any reporting suggestions? Send to g1 This is because, despite the fire having affected olive trees in specific regions, the areas responsible for most of the cultivation remain far from the outbreaks and the expectation is for a record harvest, which should keep product prices stable globally. Heat wave worsens fires and causes energy crisis in Europe Fires are a concern, but do not reach key areas Spain accounts for 70% of the olive oil produced in the European Union and 45% of the olive oil consumed in the world, according to the country's Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food. For this reason, there is concern about the impacts of the climate crisis on plantations, including olive trees. In the province of Castellón, for example, a recent fire caused between 35 million and 40 million euros in damage to local agriculture, according to the agricultural association Asaja. For the International Olive Council (IOC), there is concern about the recent fires that hit the country. Road in Spain surrounded by flames from a forest fire, on July 9, 2026 EMA Infoca However, at this time, the entity considers that "it is still too early to assess the potential impact on the production of olive oil and olives" and that "a reliable assessment will require detailed information on the affected areas and can only be carried out when the extent of the damage has been verified by the competent national authorities". The Spanish Ministry of Agriculture reported that it is collecting data on the impact of the most recent fires on agricultural and livestock areas. The ministry highlighted that the regions most affected by the fires are, in general, not major producers of olive oil – with the exception of part of the Sierra de Espadán, also in Castellón, whose impact on exports is considered small. For experts, the central concern is not the fire itself in the affected areas, but the secondary effects of extreme weather. Spain faces prolonged water restrictions, which reduce soil moisture and could cause olives to fall prematurely before harvest. Furthermore, successive heat waves can compromise the quality of the fruits and increase production costs, which can be passed on to the end consumer. The IOC considers that the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events "are a cause for increasing concern for the olive sector". "Climate change poses significant challenges for olive cultivation across the Mediterranean Basin, affecting production, water availability, biodiversity and the long-term resilience of olive cultivation systems," says the international association in a note to DW. Almost all olive oil consumed in Brazil comes from other countries. Spain and Italy are the main producers Alessandra Tarantino/AP A harvest to hold down prices Still, the scenario for the next harvest is considered positive. According to specialized sector websites, projections point to a historic harvest for the country. For olive oil scientist Marcelo Scofano, one of the authors of the book Olive Oil: Ancestry and New Food, the favorable expectation is due to the abundant rains recorded in the last European winter, which returned a satisfactory volume of water to the Spanish reservoirs. "However, we are waiting for this period because the heat waves, with the frequency they are coming, not necessarily the intensity, evaporate that water from the ground. But the reservoirs are still full, which hasn't happened for a long time. So, the expectation so far is of an excellent harvest, but it is also a time to wait, observing the weather over the next three weeks", he explains. The expert also points out that the olive growing sector has been going through a transition: traditional cultivation systems are giving way to the "super-intensive" model, which uses another variety of olive tree and depends on mechanized harvesting. The change seeks to address labor shortages and make water use more efficient in the face of climate challenges. Mechanism against falling prices Given the prospect of excess supply, the Spanish Ministry of Agriculture opened a public consultation on olive oil marketing standards for the 2026/2027 harvest, which begins in October. The contribution period runs from July 23rd to August 13th. According to the Spanish Ministry, the objective of the standards is to guarantee stability in the market. Among the mechanisms provided for by European Union legislation is the possibility of withdrawing part of the production from the market until the next campaign in case of overproduction – a measure designed, above all, to avoid sudden price drops that harm producers. "The mechanism is more focused in the opposite direction, to avoid a sharp drop in prices, which could compromise farmers' profitability in the case of an extraordinarily large harvest", explains the ministry. The ministry highlights, however, that the existence of the rule does not mean that it will be applied: in the previous harvest, even classified as "very good" by the department, production did not exceed the limit of 120% of the average of the previous six seasons – a level that triggers the withdrawal mechanism. Olive oil production in Brazil represents only 1% of the country's total consumption. Reproduction/RBS TV What this means for Brazil The behavior of the Spanish market directly affects Brazil, one of the largest importers of olive oil in the world. Between 2023 and 2024, Brazilian consumers felt the impact of the drought in the Iberian Peninsula, when a 500 ml bottle cost more than R$50 on the shelves. Second