Around 4,500 of the 5,500 Brazilian municipalities – just over 80% of the total – present medium, high or very high vulnerability to geo-hydrological disasters. These cities are more susceptible to impacts resulting from floods, floods and landslides.
More than 80% of Brazil's municipalities are vulnerable to climate disasters
Around 4,500 of the 5,500 Brazilian municipalities – just over 80% of the total – present medium, high or very high vulnerability to geo-hydrological disasters. These cities are more susceptible to impacts resulting from floods, floods and...
The unprecedented survey was carried out by the Climate Observatory (OC) based on data covering the last decade from the Information and Analysis System on the Impacts of Climate Change (AdaptaBrasil), from the Ministry of Science and Technology (MCTI). To calculate vulnerability, AdaptaBrasil combines a city's sensitivity to extreme weather events with its...
- The OC analysis shows that 3,800 municipalities in the country (68% of the total) have a medium, high or very high risk of flooding, flash floods and flooding.
- Among the capitals, Salvador (BA) has the highest risk of floods and landslides, followed by Belém (PA), Manaus (AM) and Macapá (AP).
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The unprecedented survey was carried out by the Climate Observatory (OC) based on data covering the last decade from the Information and Analysis System on the Impacts of Climate Change (AdaptaBrasil), from the Ministry of Science and Technology (MCTI). To calculate vulnerability, AdaptaBrasil combines a city's sensitivity to extreme weather events with its adaptive capacity.
The OC analysis shows that 3,800 municipalities in the country (68% of the total) have a medium, high or very high risk of flooding, flash floods and flooding. In 1,500 of them, the risk is high or very high. As for landslides, 53% of Brazilian cities – 2,900 municipalities – have medium, high or very high risk. In 1,041 cities (19% of the country's total), the risk is high or very high.
Among the capitals, Salvador (BA) has the highest risk of floods and landslides, followed by Belém (PA), Manaus (AM) and Macapá (AP). The Northeast concentrates five of the ten capitals with the highest combined risks, including Recife (PE), Maceió (AL), João Pessoa (PB) and Aracaju (SE).
National numbers hide great inequalities: exposure to risks varies greatly between regions, cities and even neighborhoods, depending on where and how people live. In other words, income, infrastructure and access to public services also weigh on the ability to face and recover from impacts.
Database projections indicate that risks will increase in the coming decades, even under the most favorable climate scenarios. In many capitals, the difference between the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios is small, which reinforces the idea that the country needs to adapt quickly.
Making this scenario less threatening requires heavy public investment, planning and execution capacity. But the problem is not just financial, as city halls need teams capable of planning and executing projects that integrate themes such as housing, urban planning, social assistance, environment and Civil Defense. Furthermore, much of Brazil's infrastructure was planned for known problems, not for the new scale of climate extremes.
Adaptation also needs to gain more weight in Brazilian climate policy. And also stop being treated solely as a response to disasters, explains Diosmar Santana Filho, geographer and researcher at the Iyaleta Research Association. “Adaptation is a new form of development”, he assessed.
For Henrique Frota, executive director of the Pólis Institute, adaptation and mitigation efforts need to move forward together, and quickly. "We have to work now on all possible fronts. We can't choose. Everything becomes fundamental from the point of view of a truly responsible climate action agenda."