(FOLHAPRESS) - Artificial intelligence could add almost R$1 trillion to the Brazilian economy between 2027 and 2030, according to a study by Reglab (Center for Strategy and Regulation). The value corresponds to the sum, in present value, of the production gains estimated for the four years considered in the research.
AI could add R$1 trillion to Brazil's GDP by 2030, says study commissioned by OpenAI
(FOLHAPRESS) - Artificial intelligence could add almost R$1 trillion to the Brazilian economy between 2027 and 2030, according to a study by Reglab (Center for Strategy and Regulation). The value corresponds to the sum, in present value,...
The study was carried out at the request of OpenAI and transposes to Brazil the methodology of an article published in 2025 by Nobel laureate in Economics Daron Acemoglu, who projected the impact of AI on the GDP of the United States. To make his estimate, Acemoglu uses an American government database that lists the tasks performed by each profession, such...
- To make his estimate, Acemoglu uses an American government database that lists the tasks performed by each profession, such as writing documents or serving customers, and cross-references...
- As Brazil does not have a similar database, Reglab crossed the American database with the occupations present in the Continuous National Household Sample Survey, by IBGE (Brazilian...
- In the report's central scenario, AI would increase GDP by 2.77% over the period, or an average of 0.69 percentage points per year.
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The study was carried out at the request of OpenAI and transposes to Brazil the methodology of an article published in 2025 by Nobel laureate in Economics Daron Acemoglu, who projected the impact of AI on the GDP of the United States.
To make his estimate, Acemoglu uses an American government database that lists the tasks performed by each profession, such as writing documents or serving customers, and cross-references it with previous studies that evaluated which of them could be accelerated by AI.
As Brazil does not have a similar database, Reglab crossed the American database with the occupations present in the Continuous National Household Sample Survey, by IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics), which does not inform which tasks Brazilian workers perform during their shifts.
In the report's central scenario, AI would increase GDP by 2.77% over the period, or an average of 0.69 percentage points per year. The largest portion of the effect, 65%, would come from increased worker productivity. The remaining 35% would come from incorporating technology into machines, equipment and other productive assets.
The accumulated gain of R$986.7 billion is equivalent to 7.6% of the GDP estimated for 2026. Manufacturing industries would concentrate the biggest gain, of R$264 billion, followed by other service activities, with R$165 billion, and by commerce, with R$131 billion.
The impact would take different forms depending on the sector. In agriculture, 92% of the gain, estimated at R$48 billion, would come from intelligent equipment, drones and sensors.
In finance, communication and public administration, the increase in productivity of professionals would predominate, as they would begin to analyze documents, produce code and organize information in less time.
In total, the study makes projections in 12 areas of the Brazilian economy.
"These numbers are, in a way, conservative. No study captures the transformation of activities that can arise from AI. Before, there was no person who does 'vibe coding' or is a prompt engineer", says Pedro Henrique Ramos, executive director of Reglab.
"Because these are new activities, we cannot predict them. There are many things emerging in various sectors that will increase these numbers even further. It is a methodological challenge."
Reglab calculations assume that the incorporation of these tools will be gradual. For 2030, the model estimates that 66% of the earning potential related to work and 62% of that linked to capital will have been used.
The speed would be lower than in advanced economies, due to expensive credit, differences between companies and infrastructure and qualification deficiencies in Brazil.
By way of comparison, studies in recent years have also attempted to project the impact of AI on Brazilian GDP, each with its own methods and deadlines.
In 2024, for example, the IMF estimated that AI could make Brazilian production around 5% higher in the long term, or almost 8% in an expanded scenario. PwC consultancy calculated last year that technology could add 0.6% to 13% to GDP by 2035.
The difference between the numbers shows that the studies work with different methodologies, criteria and hypotheses. The result depends on the speed of adoption, the activities affected and the productivity gain.
The transposition of the American task base used by Acemoglu appears in respected international studies and does not invalidate the exercise, but it can create blind spots: the same profession can bring together different tasks, technologies and working conditions in the United States and Brazil.
The report also highlights that gains are potential. Their achievement would depend on connectivity in the countryside, retraining of workers, support for small businesses, access to credit and predictable rules.
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