In an environment of geopolitical tensions and uncertainties linked to the “Trump effect”, the recurring recommendation from experts to diversify markets and the export agenda remains at the center of the debate. Even so, data from the Foreign Trade Indicator (Icomex), from Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV), show that the variation in exports remains relatively concentrated: the five main products accounted for 46.7% of Brazil's total exports from January to July 2026, compared to 43.3% in the same period in 2025.
Amid tensions and the 'Trump effect', exports remain concentrated
In an environment of geopolitical tensions and uncertainties linked to the “Trump effect”, the recurring recommendation from experts to diversify markets and the export agenda remains at the center of the debate. Even so, data from the...
In July, exported and imported volumes fell compared to the same month in 2025. However, the increase in prices ensured growth, in value, of trade flows and an improvement in the surplus in the interannual comparison.
- In the year to date, the main contribution to exports came from oil, with 33.2%, followed by soybeans, with 22.44%, in addition to beef.
- In July, beef and iron ore had negative influences, while oil, soybeans and fuel oil recorded positive contributions.
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In July, exported and imported volumes fell compared to the same month in 2025. However, the increase in prices ensured growth, in value, of trade flows and an improvement in the surplus in the interannual comparison.
In the year to date, the main contribution to exports came from oil, with 33.2%, followed by soybeans, with 22.44%, in addition to beef. In July, beef and iron ore had negative influences, while oil, soybeans and fuel oil recorded positive contributions.
The report highlights that the volume of oil exported fell by 8.2%, but prices increased by 35.2%, which resulted in a positive contribution.
The trade balance balance in July was US$7.1 billion, taking the accumulated surplus for the year to US$49.0 billion, US$11.8 billion above that recorded in the same period in 2025.
Among the main partners, there was an improvement in the trade balance with China, with a gain of US$8.1 billion, and with the European Union, with US$2.9 billion. With the United States, the deficit increased from US$2.1 billion to US$2.3 billion. With Argentina, the surplus fell from US$3.5 billion to US$1.2 billion.
In value, Brazil's total exports increased by 6.2% in July, while imports increased by 7.6%. During the month, export volume fell 4.0%, while export prices rose 10.7%. In imports, prices grew 8.0%, also with a decline in volume.
In the year to July, exports grew 10.5%, with an increase of 2.8% in volume and 7.1% in prices. Imports increased 5.5%, with an increase of 0.2% in volume and 5.2% in prices.
Government informs the US that it will begin consultations to apply reciprocity against Trump tariffs
The Brazilian government notified the United States about the beginning of the procedure provided for in the Economic Reciprocity Law. In this first stage, the country seeks a diplomatic solution before adopting possible commercial countermeasures against the tariffs imposed by Washington