We are already under the effect of a strong El Niño, according to data released this week by the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). But the phenomenon should gain even more strength in the coming months, with the possibility of recording one of the most intense El Niño since 1950, highlights Climatempo.
El Niño reaches “strong” category and is expected to intensify in the coming months
We are already under the effect of a strong El Niño, according to data released this week by the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). But the phenomenon should gain even more strength in the coming months,...
The main indicator for verifying the occurrence of El Niño is the sea surface temperature in the central and eastern portion of the Equatorial Pacific, off the coasts of Peru and Ecuador — the Niño 3.4 region. The average anomaly must be at least 0.5°C above the normal average and for at least five consecutive months.
- According to NOAA, the anomaly is already positive at 1.8°C in the Niño 3.4 region.
- Readings in other areas of the ocean also point to an increase in average temperatures.
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The main indicator for verifying the occurrence of El Niño is the sea surface temperature in the central and eastern portion of the Equatorial Pacific, off the coasts of Peru and Ecuador — the Niño 3.4 region. The average anomaly must be at least 0.5°C above the normal average and for at least five consecutive months.
According to NOAA, the anomaly is already positive at 1.8°C in the Niño 3.4 region. Readings in other areas of the ocean also point to an increase in average temperatures.
The anomaly already places the current El Niño in the “strong” category, which ranges from +1.5oC to +1.9oC, and close to the “very strong” classification (2.0oC or more) – the so-called “Super El Niño”. This can occur between mid-spring and early summer in the Southern Hemisphere, when the phenomenon usually peaks in the Pacific. For NOAA, the probability of a very strong El Niño is 81%.
The phenomenon should not be limited to 2026. The expectation is that El Niño patterns will continue in the Equatorial Pacific throughout the summer of 2026/2027, which means that we will have its effects on the global climate at least until the beginning of autumn next year, report Canal Rural, Revista Fórum and Correio Braziliense.
One of the effects of El Niño that should be more recurrent is heat waves. Pará Terra Boa highlights experts' assessment of the potential effects of the phenomenon in Brazil, warning of the public authorities' lack of attention to high temperatures in the country.
Data from the Unified Health System (SUS) from 14 metropolitan regions show that, between 2000 and 2020, at least 50,000 deaths could be associated with heat waves. This is 20 times higher than the number of deaths from landslides in the same period.
"This means that heat waves are still a completely neglected disaster in our country. They do not have the impact of other types of tragedy, in which deaths are immediate. We are used to thinking that, because we live in a tropical country, we are used to heat. And that is not true", said Renata Libonati, professor at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) and member of the Committee of Experts on Climate Monitoring of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
Another reflection of El Niño is the demand for electrical energy. At the same time that high temperatures increase electricity consumption, droughts related to the phenomenon affect the level of hydroelectric reservoirs, forcing the activation of thermoelectric plants powered by fossil fuels to guarantee energy supply. The result of this is a more expensive electricity tariff, with a widespread impact on the economy. Not to mention the increase in greenhouse gas emissions.
This is already being felt. According to Canal Solar, future energy prices rose in anticipation of a stronger El Niño. Contracts for December advanced 2.26%, from R$293.61 per megawatt-hour (MWh) to R$300.25/MWh. Contracts for the 1st quarter of 2027 rose 2.68% (from R$299.08/MWh to R$307.09/MWh).
The State of Minas highlights the possibility of electricity bills starting to rise from September onwards. From that month onwards, the trend is for a drier scenario in the Southeast and Central-West regions, where the country's main hydroelectric reservoirs are concentrated.