Dollar rises and Stock Exchange falls with US inflation and foreigners’ departure on the radar

The indicator favors risky assets, but the outflow of foreign investors from Brazil, which has marked August, weighs on domestic assets during the trading session.

At around 2:13 pm, the American currency rose 0.22%, to R$5.189. The movement contrasted with abroad, where the DXY index, which measures the dollar's performance against a basket of six currencies, fell 0.07%. At the same time, the Stock Exchange fell 0.21%, to 167,132 points.

Producer price data in the US were lower than expected in July, in a sign of less inflationary pressure in the American economy. In comparison with the previous month, prices remained stable, while, on an annual basis, the increase was 4.7%. Expectations, according to a Reuters survey, were for advances of 0.2% and 4.9%, respectively.

For William Castro Alves, chief strategist at Avenue, the result reinforces the scenario of a gradual slowdown in inflation in the United States.

"The result signals that the inflationary pressure observed in recent months, intensified by the conflict in the Middle East, is losing strength. Although inflation accumulated in 12 months remains high, this level reflects the effect of previous months, while more recent data points to an accommodation trajectory", he states.

According to Alves, the reading is positive for the market. "A higher-than-expected data would increase concerns about the persistence of inflation and could reinforce the expectation of a more restrictive policy from the Fed. As this did not occur, the indicator contributes to a more favorable environment for risky assets", he says.

Data from FedWatch, from the CME Group, show that there was an increase in bets on maintaining the interest rate in the range of 3.50% to 3.75%, after the release of the indicator. According to analysts consulted, there was a 65.6% chance of maintenance, compared to 59.6% the day before.

In the USA, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Stock Exchanges rose up to 0.80% in this Thursday's trading session. In the domestic environment, the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) reported that the Brazilian retail sector ended the second quarter with a higher-than-expected increase in sales in June.

The increase was 0.5% compared to May, accelerating the pace in relation to the previous month and signaling some resilience in consumption, even in the face of a scenario of still high interest rates.

For André Valério, senior economist at Inter, despite the advance, the June result reinforces a moderation in activity.

"June's performance was largely explained by supermarkets, an essential consumption. In the year, much of the growth comes from fuels, pharmaceuticals and supermarkets, essential consumption, while expanded retail, more sensitive to credit, shows signs of losing dynamism", he says.

The sector has been affected by the slowdown in consumption, which put pressure on companies' balance sheets in the second quarter, in addition to the increase in household debt.

In recent trading sessions, domestic assets have been pressured by the prospect of high interest rates for longer, amid uncertainties related to the war in Iran. The high Selic level favors fixed income investments and reduces part of the Stock Exchange's attractiveness.

The conflict in the Middle East also favors assets considered safer, such as the dollar. The DXY index, which measures the performance of the American currency against a basket of six currencies, has accumulated an increase of 2.46% since the start of the war, compared to a decline of 0.72% in the year to date.

The electoral scenario and fiscal concerns also put pressure on Brazilian assets. The factors were cited by the bank JPMorgan when reducing the recommendation for Brazilian shares from "overweight" (above average) to "neutral".

The departure of foreign investors from the Stock Exchange is also a major factor. Until the 11th, the August balance is negative at R$11.9 billion, which, so far, places the month with the worst balance of the year, behind only May. In 2026, however, the balance remains positive at R$29.1 billion.

"Local assets continue to be weakened by the departure of foreigners and the proximity of the election, which reinforces fiscal risks and keeps the risk premium high", says Otávio Araújo, senior consultant at Zero Markets Brasil.

The day is also marked by the impasse in the Middle East. In the Persian Gulf, negotiations between Iran and the US remain at a standstill, according to a senior Iranian source, who said there has been no progress in reactivating the interim agreement signed in June and setting a deadline for its implementation.

According to Tehran spokespeople, the country expects the United States to lift the naval blockade and sanctions against Iran, withdraw American military forces from the country's vicinity, pay reparations for the war and release frozen Iranian assets. The Iranian government also calls for an end to attacks on its allies in the region and threats against the country.

The auction will also feature the participation of the president of the Central Bank, Gabriel Galípolo, in the event "30 years of FGC operations", promoted by the Credit Guarantee Fund (FGC), in São Paulo. The speeches may bring signals about the next steps of the Copom (Monetary Policy Committee) in relation to the Brazilian interest rate.

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