Understand what makes the price of the dollar rise or fall The dollar opened this Wednesday's session (12) in decline, with a decline of 0.10% close to 9 am, quoted at R$ 5.1556. Ibovespa trading, the main index on the Brazilian stock exchange, begins at 10am. Investors await new inflation data from the United States and remain attentive to developments in the war in the Middle East. The Brazilian electoral scenario and doubts about the direction of interest rates in the country are also on the radar, after JP Morgan cited both factors in a report the day before. (see below) ?? Do you have any suggestions for a report? Send it to g1 ?? The new US inflation data is the highlight of the session. According to a Reuters survey, the expectation is that the indicator will rise 0.1% in July, after falling 0.4% in June. For annual inflation, the forecast is for a slowdown, from 3.5% to 3.4%. Stronger-than-expected data could reinforce the prospect that interest rates will remain high for longer in the country. ?? Still abroad, the conflict in the Middle East remains on the radar. According to Bloomberg, American President Donald Trump has claimed control of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the main maritime routes for oil trade in the region. Iran, however, continues to carry out attacks on ships transiting the canal. The differences between the two countries once again raise concerns about the global oil supply. Around 9 am, the barrel of Brent, an international reference, increased by 0.21%, quoted at US$ 89.10. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), a reference in the USA, rose 0.43% at the same time, to US$ 83.56 per barrel. ?? In Brazil, the Monthly Services Survey (PMS) takes center stage. The expectation is that the sector will present a retraction of 0.6% in June in the monthly comparison and a growth of 0.8% in relation to the same month in 2025. See below for more details of the day in the market. ?Dollar
Dollar opens lower, with inflation in the US and Middle East in focus
Understand what makes the price of the dollar rise or fall The dollar opened this Wednesday's session (12) in decline, with a decline of 0.10% close to 9 am, quoted at R$ 5.1556. Ibovespa trading, the main index on the Brazilian stock...
/https://i.s3.glbimg.com/v1/AUTH_e84042ef78cb4708aeebdf1c68c6cbd6/internal_photos/bs/2026/B/m/BPA2z3Q265hsY4ec9l0w/capa-2026-06-22t124608.472.jpg)
The Brazilian electoral scenario and doubts about the direction of interest rates in the country are also on the radar, after JP Morgan cited both factors in a report the day before. According to a Reuters survey, the expectation is that the indicator will rise 0.1% in July, after falling 0.4% in June.
- For annual inflation, the forecast is for a slowdown, from 3.5% to 3.4%.
- Stronger-than-expected data could reinforce the prospect that interest rates will remain high for longer in the country.
Editorial reading aid based only on information contained in this story and its identified source.
a Accumulated for the week: +1.52%; Accumulated for the month: +1.80%; Accumulated for the year: --5.98%. ?Ibovespa
Accumulated for the week: 0%; Accumulated for the week: --2.77%; Accumulated for the month: --5.77%; Accumulated for the year: +6.86%. Trump claims control of Hormuz The standoffs between the US and Iran continue to bring volatility to oil prices on the international market. The day before, according to information from Bloomberg, Trump stated that he had control of the Strait of Hormuz, a route through which around 20% of all global trade in the commodity passes. The information, however, was denied by Iran, which continues to carry out intermittent attacks on ships transiting the region. According to data released by Reuters, the number of vessels monitored in the Strait fell to eight on Tuesday, the lowest level in a week. The drop indicates that ships remain wary of crossing the channel, amid the tensions and attacks reported. What is the Strait of Hormuz, crucial for world oil? At the same time, negotiations between the two countries for a peace agreement appear to be at an impasse. Over the weekend, Iran released a list of demands for the reopening of the Strait and stated that the US will need to meet the demands for Tehran to allow vessels to pass. The information comes from the American newspaper "The New York Times" (NYT), based on a statement published by Iranian state media. Among the demands are: the suspension of the naval blockade and American sanctions against Iran; the withdrawal of American troops from the country's vicinity; the payment of war reparations; the release of frozen Iranian assets; the end of attacks against Iranian allies in the region; and the end of threats against the country. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi also said the country and Oman were "very close" to an agreement on a new shipping route through the Strait. "There is progress between Oman and Iran in the strait, and we hope for a deal soon," a US official told Reuters on Friday. "As soon as the agreement to reestablish unimpeded commercial shipping is announced, the United States will lift the blockade on Iranian ports." On Monday, however, Trump mocked Iran's demand for compensation that should be paid by Washington for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Ibovespa "downgraded" A JPMorgan report that reduced its recommendation for the Ibovespa, from "above average" to "neutral". In practice, the bank began to see less room for appreciation in the Brazilian market in relation to other investment options. According to Gabriel Magno, head of investment allocation and partner at AW Capital, JPMorgan's assessment is mainly related to the increase in uncertainty about the Brazilian scenario. Among the points considered by the bank are the possibility of cuts in the basic interest rate being interrupted after September and the effects of the October elections on the market. The concern about interest rates is relevant because cuts in the Selic tend to reduce companies' financing costs and can make investments in shares more attractive. If the space for further reductions decreases, this movement loses strength and could affect expectations for the Stock Exchange. JPMorgan also reduced its projection for the Ibovespa at the end of 2026, from 190 thousand to 185 thousand points, according to Magno. For the analyst, the increase in risk perception in Brazil helped to put pressure not only on shares, but also on the dollar and the rates negotiated in the market for future interest rates. Global stock markets In the US, Wall Street's main indices closed lower, pressured by the decline in technology stocks and as investors evaluated rumors that the US and Iran were close to "some kind of agreement". The Dow Jones fell 0.35%, to 53,787.57 points. The S&P 500 fell 0.33%, to 7,727.79 points. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.60%, to 26,445 points. In Europe, the region's main markets closed the day mixed, as optimism with a solid earnings season offset caution in r