China tries to reduce dependence on imported food; What does this mean for Brazilian agriculture

Food security: a challenge of strategy and survival between the US and China "The Chinese people's rice bowl must be firmly in their own hands, filled mainly with Chinese food." The phrase, repeated for more than a decade by President Xi Jinping, summarizes the strategy that has been guiding China's food security policy: producing more food domestically and relying less on imports. ?? Do you have any reporting suggestions? Send to g1 This objective appears in the goals established by the Chinese government in its 15th Five-Year Plan, published at the beginning of the year for the period from 2026 to 2030. ? The Five-Year Plan brings together China's main strategic goals for periods of five years, with economic and social development objectives. In this edition, the document foresees expanding the internal production of products of which Brazil is currently one of the main suppliers, such as soybeans, corn and meat. (learn more below) The beef import quotas imposed by China this year on several countries, including Brazil, are already part of this movement. The country is working to increase its self-sufficiency in beef and lamb from 70% to 85%. But what does Brazil look like in the face of this new strategy? Experts interviewed by g1 assess that the scenario does not point to a rupture or a drastic drop in Chinese imports, but it already requires adaptation on the part of Brazilian companies. "The game in the coming years is not to sell more tons, it is to sell the best tons. This means adding value, moving from the pure commodity to premium cuts, processed products and brands. And diversifying destinations, so as not to be held hostage by just one buyer", says Theo Paul Santana, founder of the consultancy Destino China, which facilitates business with the Asian country. “We will continue to be important for a reason that China itself recognizes: it can do wonders in engineering, but it still cannot invent land and water,” he adds. Although it has a larger territory than Brazil, China has a limited amount of land suitable for agriculture. Much of the country is made up of mountainous, arid or desert regions. Furthermore, it contains less than 5% of the fresh water available on the planet. Therefore, China's plans must advance mainly by increasing productivity — that is, producing more in the same area with the support of technologies, such as genetic improvement of seeds and more advanced machinery. Larissa Wachholz, former special advisor to the Ministry of Agriculture and partner at Vallya Associados, states that, although China is far from becoming 100% self-sufficient, its ability to meet the goals it sets should not be underestimated. “I have been following Chinese public policy for years and I see that, when China commits to doing something and puts its efforts in technology, education and financial resources towards it, it manages to achieve consistent results", he says. READ ALSO Subsidies, planning, stocks and drones: how China keeps food cheap and guarantees supplies Why does China have cheap food, while the US faces rising prices? What the Chinese food security plan foresees Among the various fronts of the Chinese plan, some points highlighted by experts are: more grains: increasing annual production capacity to 725 million tons by 2030. Last year, China harvested a little less than 715 million tons. more technology in the field: increase the contribution of science and technology to agricultural development from 64% to 67%; less dependence on imported soy: reduce the share of soybean meal in animal feed from around 14% to less than 10% by 2030; more self-sufficiency: producing at least 95% of basic grains, such as rice and wheat, within China; achieve 85% self-sufficiency in beef and lamb and 70% in milk. Theo Santana states that China has already reached the goal of self-sufficiency in basic grains, such as rice and wheat, and that the production of these foods already exceeds domestic demand by more than 100%, according to data from the Chinese government's National Statistics Office, collected by him. However, the country is still below targets for other foods. In the case of beef and lamb, the country can meet 70% of domestic demand. In milk production, this percentage is 62%. People are seen walking through a rice field in Yuanyang, China. AP/Liang Zhiqiang/Xinhua How the Chinese strategy affects Brazil Consultant Theo Paul Santana highlights that the focus of the Chinese strategy is mainly on grains intended to feed the population, products that Brazil practically does not export to the country. "What Brazil sells is precisely what China cannot be self-sufficient in: soy and meat", he says. Last year, China imported a record volume of almost 112 million tons of soybeans, and more than 70% of this total originated in Brazil. Chinese production accounts for only around 20% of the country's demand. China, however, feels “uncomfortable” with this dependence, says Larissa Wachholz. Therefore, the country has been intensifying investments in technology and genetic improvement, including in transgenic seeds, a topic that, until recently, was treated as “taboo” in the country. The objective is to increase production without expanding the planted area or water consumption. In the grains market, Brazil has already felt the impact on corn exports. Last year, China had a record harvest and reduced cereal imports from 8.4 million tons in 2024 to less than 4 million in 2025. As a result, the value of Brazilian corn exports to China fell 20.8% last year, according to data from the Ministry of Agriculture. Another reflection of this movement has already appeared in the beef market, with the adoption of quotas for Brazil and other exporting countries. In January, China imposed a 55% surcharge on Brazilian meat imports that