El Niño operating in the Pacific Ocean is expected to gain even more strength in the coming months and could become a historic event, with important impacts on the climate and Brazilian agricultural production during the 2026/27 harvest. The assessment is from Arthur Müller, meteorologist at Canal Rural.
Chances of Super El Niño grow and trigger warning for next harvest with drought and extreme rain
El Niño operating in the Pacific Ocean is expected to gain even more strength in the coming months and could become a historic event, with important impacts on the climate and Brazilian agricultural production during the 2026/27 harvest....
According to the expert, the most recent report from the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reinforces the prospect of an intensification of the phenomenon. Projections indicate a probability of between 90% and 95% of a very strong El Niño in the coming months, especially between September and December.
- The phenomenon is expected to continue influencing the climate during the 2026/27 cycle and could last until the fall of 2027.
- Super El Niño could surpass 2015 and 2016 event One of the points that draw attention to the projections is the possibility of the current phenomenon reaching an intensity similar to or...
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According to the expert, the most recent report from the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reinforces the prospect of an intensification of the phenomenon. Projections indicate a probability of between 90% and 95% of a very strong El Niño in the coming months, especially between September and December.
The phenomenon is expected to continue influencing the climate during the 2026/27 cycle and could last until the fall of 2027.
Super El Niño could surpass 2015 and 2016 event
One of the points that draw attention to the projections is the possibility of the current phenomenon reaching an intensity similar to or even greater than that observed in the 2015/16 El Niño, considered one of the strongest ever recorded.
In that episode, according to Müller, the average Pacific anomaly reached approximately 2.8°C. This time, the average projections are also close to 2.7°C to 2.8°C, while some models indicate values ??close to 3°C.
“The tendency is for us to have a historic phenomenon”, says the meteorologist.
Müller also highlights the strong warming observed below the surface of the Equatorial Pacific. According to him, there are areas at depth showing temperature anomalies close to 10°C.
The meteorologist highlights that extreme events are part of the planet's natural cycles, but can be heightened by ocean warming and changes caused by human action.
South may face excessive rain
For agribusiness, the effects of El Niño should vary significantly between Brazilian regions.
In the South, the main concern is excessive rain. Rio Grande do Sul is expected to face high volumes during the spring, an important period for the implementation of summer crops.
In Palmeira das Missões (RS), for example, the projections presented by the meteorologist indicate accumulations that could reach 600 millimeters, a scenario that he considers capable of favoring episodes of flooding.
Although average temperatures do not necessarily show large deviations, periods of firm weather can be accompanied by strong warming, with maximum temperatures close to 30°C.
São Paulo may have rain, but the heat is a concern
In the Southeast, São Paulo tends to benefit most from the rains associated with the phenomenon. Minas Gerais and Espírito Santo, on the other hand, may face more irregular rainfall.
In the region of Assis (SP), an important area of agricultural production, projections point to volumes between 100 and 120 millimeters, interspersed with periods of intense heat.
Maximum temperatures can reach between 34°C and 35°C at times.
Midwest may have irregular rain and temperatures above 40°C
In the Midwest, Müller draws attention to a scenario that can confuse the producer. Although some maps indicate above-average rainfall, this does not necessarily mean an adequate distribution of rainfall throughout the harvest.
The expectation is for above-average temperatures and prolonged periods of heat between episodes of rain.
In Sorriso (MT), one of the main grain producing regions in the country, rainfall should only become more regular from the second half of October.
Until then, the heat may pose an additional challenge. According to Müller, maximum temperatures can frequently reach 40°C and, at times, exceed that mark.
North and Northeast have a more critical scenario
The most worrying situation regarding the lack of rain should occur in the North and Northeast. In these regions, El Niño tends to favor below-average precipitation combined with higher temperatures.
In Barreiras, in western Bahia, projections indicate few significant accumulations precisely in the period when the rains should begin to return. The heat must also remain intense.
In the North, in addition to the impacts on production, the lack of rain can affect agribusiness logistics.
Müller warns of possible repercussions on Arco Norte, an important grain export corridor. In Altamira (PA), for example, projections point to little rain in November, a period that coincides with the beginning of planting in some areas, and maximum temperatures close to 40°C.
With the strengthening of El Niño predicted for the coming months, the meteorologist reinforces that producers will need to monitor not only the total volumes of precipitation, but mainly the distribution of rain and the occurrence of heat waves throughout the 2026/27 harvest.
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