At the beginning of the week, data from the United States National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration (NOAA) showed that El Niño is already under the “strong” category, with the temperature anomaly in the Equatorial Pacific, off the coasts of Peru and Ecuador – the Niño 3.4 region – reaching + 1.8oC. Yesterday (13/8), the entity updated its forecast for the phenomenon. In addition to indicating that a “Super El Niño” – when the phenomenon reaches the “very strong” classification – is close, NOAA increased the probability that the event is historic.
Chance of “Super El Niño” rises to more than 90%, NOAA points out
At the beginning of the week, data from the United States National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration (NOAA) showed that El Niño is already under the “strong” category, with the temperature anomaly in the Equatorial Pacific, off the...
In addition to indicating that a “Super El Niño” – when the phenomenon reaches the “very strong” classification – is close, NOAA increased the probability that the event is historic. According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC), there is more than a 90% chance of a very strong event during the spring and summer of 2026-27 in the Southern Hemisphere,...
- Previously, the institution indicated an 81% probability of a “Super El Niño” this year.
- Furthermore, the CPC projects that the phenomenon will reach an intensity never seen in 76 years of records, highlights Bloomberg.
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According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC), there is more than a 90% chance of a very strong event during the spring and summer of 2026-27 in the Southern Hemisphere, Reuters and Folha report. Previously, the institution indicated an 81% probability of a “Super El Niño” this year.
Furthermore, the CPC projects that the phenomenon will reach an intensity never seen in 76 years of records, highlights Bloomberg. “During the October to December season, there is a 69% chance of a historic event that would exceed the intensity of previous El Niño events since 1950,” the center reports. The agency noted that July temperatures across the Pacific rivaled only those in 1997, which was also considered a landmark event.
The occurrence of a “Super El Niño” does not necessarily mean that there will be more serious consequences. However, this classification increases the chances that the most characteristic impacts of the phenomenon will occur, with more intense storms, droughts or heat waves, depending on the region of the planet.
The planet has already been recording more frequent and intense extreme events due to climate change, mainly caused by the burning of fossil fuels. As Daniel Aleixo, from ClimaInfo, explained, not everything is the fault of “Super El Niño”. But the phenomenon tends to worsen these occurrences, acting as a kind of “icing on the cake” of the climate crisis.
Even without a “Super El Niño”, agricultural areas in Asia, Africa and the Americas have already been suffering from droughts, delays in planting, crop losses and water supply problems, according to Veja. In India, which depends on the monsoons for much of its agricultural production, rainfall was 12% below average until August. In some regions, the deficit reached 34%.
In Guatemala, the scenario is even worse. Rain in the country was up to 85% below average in July in some regions. Water deficit occurs along with temperatures well above normal, increasing stress on crops and people.
In western Kenya and the highlands of Ethiopia, periods of drought are already affecting agricultural regions. Kenyan maize farmers report drastically smaller harvests. Agricultural monitoring teams describe plants that have only grown to just over half their usual height and productivity that can drop from dozens of bags per hectare to just one or two – and without “Super El Niño”, to be clear.
In Brazil, the expectation of a very strong phenomenon is already affecting the projections of some cultures. The monthly harvest survey by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) pointed out, in the July survey, a drop in national wheat production in 2026, in a review caused by producers' fears about the more adverse climate with El Niño, reports UOL. The national wheat harvest, which meets half of the national demand, is expected to shrink 18.6% in the annual comparison, points out the IBGE.