Oil futures contracts closed higher, after fluctuating between positive and negative territory this Friday (3), in a session of reduced liquidity due to the holiday in the United States. The market followed signs of greater supply in the short term, while uncertainties surrounding negotiations between Washington and Tehran and the Strait of Hormuz limited more intense movements.

Traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), WTI oil for August was up 0.13%, at US$68.78 per barrel, at around 2:30 pm (Brasília time), in electronic trading. Brent oil for September, traded on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), closed up 0.45% (US$0.32), at US$72.12 per barrel.

Throughout the day, investors assessed the balance between supply recovery and geopolitical risks in the Middle East. On Thursday (2), the President of the United States, Donald Trump, stated that he believes that Iran has accepted “everything that (the US) needs” in the agreement negotiated between the two countries.

This Friday (3), the president of the Iranian Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, warned that Tehran will resume response measures if the US and Israel do not comply with the understandings reached after the war and rejected any American interference in the Strait of Hormuz.

On the supply side, Bloomberg research showed that production by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) increased by 2.34 million barrels per day in June, to 18.75 million barrels per day, reflecting the resumption of exports through the Strait of Hormuz following the peace agreement between the US and Iran.

MUFG analysts stated that the contango price structure – when futures contracts trade above the spot price, indicating comfortable supply in the short term – reflects the recovery in exports from the Gulf. The institution considers, however, that geopolitical risks remain on the radar.

Bank of America (BofA), in turn, assessed that the reopening of Hormuz reduces the risks of a prolonged oil shortage and reiterated the expectation that Brent will remain, in the medium term, in a range between US$60 and US$80 per barrel.

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